In the next four months or so, the world will find out whether it is possible for one branch of the US federal government – the state department – to accuse Chinese officials of committing genocide, and for another branch – led by the special envoy on climate change, John Kerry – to persuade China to transform the way its dirty economy operates. Is it possible simultaneously to compete for mastery of the world and to collaborate to save that world?
The outcome of this diplomatic experiment will become known at the British-hosted Cop26 in Glasgow convened to try to put the world on course for only 1.5C of warming. All countries are expected to produce their nationally determined contributions – how much they will reduce their carbon footprint. British officials insist Cop26 is about more than China and the US, but without these two players, jointly responsible for 40% of global green house gas emissions, nothing meaningful is achievable.
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At issue are conflicting perceptions of modern China’s willingness to work with the west, its trustworthiness, and how best to influence a new superpower that fervently believes delivery of domestic economic prosperity is the basis of its legitimacy. There is also the issue of how well central government’s writ runs. In China, after all, “the mountains are high and the emperors far away”.
China’s actions on climate would not be allowed to give it any leverage over other issues, Kerry insisted. During his successful cooperation with China in the run-up to the UN Paris climate accord in 2015, he often got Ryan Hass, his close ally in the state department, to insist “US climate negotiators never were authorised to trade away other issues in pursuit of Chinese cooperation on climate”.
When Kerry visited Shanghai in April, he vowed that his relations with Xie Zhenhua, China’s climate envoy and an old ally, were his sole concern. The two of them agreed a joint statement on the “climate crisis”, a phrase the Chinese government had not used before.
Source: The Guardian
