By Abbas Nazil
The United Nations Environment Programme has warned that the world is on course for global warming of 2.8°C this century if countries continue with their existing climate policies, highlighting the urgent need for deeper greenhouse gas emission cuts ahead of the COP31 climate summit in Türkiye.
The warning was contained in UNEP’s 2026 Emissions Gap Report, titled “The Point of Return”, released on Wednesday, which found that current national climate policies and commitments remain inadequate to achieve the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
The report comes weeks before world leaders meet in Antalya, Türkiye, from November 9 to 20 for the 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference, where countries are expected to address gaps in climate action and strengthen efforts to reduce emissions.
According to UNEP, the world is likely to exceed the 1.5°C threshold, but rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions could limit the extent of the overshoot and potentially return global temperatures to the target by the end of the century.
To achieve a pathway that minimises the magnitude and duration of warming above 1.5°C, global emissions would need to decline by 18 per cent by 2030, 45 per cent by 2035 and 69 per cent by 2040, compared with 2025 levels.
However, the report estimates that full implementation of countries’ existing nationally determined contributions, which outline their climate action plans under the Paris Agreement, would reduce emissions by only five to eight per cent by 2030 and 11 to 15 per cent by 2035.
UNEP said the world could limit warming to approximately 2.6°C if governments fulfil their current climate pledges and maintain similar efforts in subsequent years.
Even under the most optimistic scenario, which assumes countries implement their existing pledges and additional net-zero targets, global temperatures would still rise by about 2.1°C this century.
The report outlined a possible pathway in which warming peaks between 1.7°C and 1.8°C around the middle of the century before returning to or below 1.5°C by 2100, although the probability of achieving this outcome is estimated at about 50 per cent.
Realising that pathway would require removing and permanently storing approximately 320 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere over the course of the century, a task UNEP said would face significant technological and socioeconomic challenges.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said exceeding the 1.5°C threshold should not discourage countries from intensifying efforts to limit temperature increases.
He stressed that the overshoot must be kept as small and brief as possible, with the world working towards bringing temperatures back below 1.5°C before the end of the century.
Guterres reiterated the need for emissions to fall by 18 per cent by 2030 and 45 per cent by 2035, compared with 2025 levels.
UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen warned that every additional fraction of a degree and every extra year of warming above 1.5°C would intensify climate risks, including floods, heatwaves and wildfires.
She urged governments to introduce and implement policies capable of delivering rapid, deep and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
Ahead of COP31, 350.org, a global climate campaign organisation, said the report reinforced the need for world leaders to present concrete plans for phasing out fossil fuels and accelerating the transition to renewable energy.
Countries agreed for the first time at COP28 in Dubai in 2023 to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner.
However, disagreements have continued over how the commitment should be implemented, the pace of the transition and how countries should share its financial and economic burdens.
350.org called on governments to move beyond declarations and implement previous commitments to phase out fossil fuels and triple renewable electricity capacity.
The organisation’s Pacific and Caribbean lead, Fenton Lutunatabua, argued that cutting emissions immediately, ending the expansion of fossil fuels and protecting natural ecosystems would provide a faster and fairer route towards limiting global warming.
He also cautioned against relying excessively on unproven carbon dioxide removal technologies, warning that such approaches could be used to justify continued expansion of oil, coal and gas production instead of reducing emissions at source.
Despite the concerning projections, UNEP identified progress in renewable energy deployment and climate policies as opportunities to accelerate global emission reductions.
The report found that global renewable electricity capacity had expanded three times faster than anticipated since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, while solar photovoltaic capacity had grown seven times faster than expected.
It also cited more than 220 policy evaluations showing that measures in the electricity sector reduced emissions by an average of nine per cent.
Economic instruments, including carbon taxes and emissions trading schemes, were found to have reduced emissions by between five and 13 per cent across sectors during the periods assessed.
However, UNEP noted that these achievements remained concentrated in particular sectors, countries and periods, making it necessary to expand successful policies worldwide.
The agency urged countries to accelerate commitments made under the Paris Agreement’s first global stocktake, including tripling renewable energy capacity, doubling the annual rate of energy efficiency improvements, transitioning away from fossil fuels, reducing methane emissions and halting deforestation.
It said methane emissions would need to decline by at least 25 per cent by 2035 and 40 per cent by 2040, compared with 2025 levels, while coal-fired electricity generation would need to fall by at least 75 per cent by 2035 and be effectively phased out by 2040.
UNEP said the next global stocktake could strengthen international climate action by extending measurable emission-reduction targets to 2035 and 2040, giving countries clearer benchmarks for tracking progress.
The agency stressed that immediate and sustained action remains essential to minimise the duration and severity of warming beyond 1.5°C and restore global temperatures to the Paris Agreement threshold by the end of the century.
