By Abbas Nazil
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has warned that global temperatures will soon exceed the 1.5°C warming threshold, urging countries to implement deeper and faster emissions cuts to limit the overshoot and return temperatures below the internationally agreed target by the end of the century.
The warning was contained in the Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return, published on Wednesday, October 21, which stressed that immediate and ambitious climate action could still prevent the worst consequences of global warming.
The report outlined a scenario in which peak global warming would be limited to between 1.7°C and 1.8°C around the middle of the century before temperatures gradually return below 1.5°C by 2100.
Achieving this pathway would require global greenhouse gas emissions to fall by 18 per cent by 2030, 45 per cent by 2035 and 69 per cent by 2040, compared with 2025 levels.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said exceeding the 1.5°C threshold should not discourage countries from pursuing ambitious climate action.
“Overshoot is not surrender,” Guterres said, adding that the world could still keep the temperature increase above the threshold as small and brief as possible before bringing it below 1.5°C by the end of the century.
He emphasised that countries must intensify their climate commitments and accelerate the transition towards cleaner energy systems.
UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen warned that every additional fraction of a degree and every year of warming above 1.5°C would increase climate-related risks, including deadly floods, heatwaves and wildfires that have affected countries around the world.
The report said global warming could reach 2.8°C this century if countries continue with their current climate policies, with temperatures potentially rising further afterwards.
Even if all existing national climate action plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), are fully implemented and similar efforts continue, warming would still reach approximately 2.6°C, highlighting the gap between current commitments and the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals.
According to UNEP, the latest projections are worse than those published in the previous year, partly because of the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and revised estimates of historical emissions.
The report also noted that new national climate pledges submitted since the previous assessment had made little difference to projected global temperatures.
However, it maintained that returning to or below the 1.5°C threshold remained technically possible, particularly as evidence increasingly shows that climate policies can reduce emissions.
The agency called on governments to accelerate the implementation of commitments identified during the first Global Stocktake, which assessed collective progress towards the Paris Agreement between 2021 and 2023.
Priority actions include tripling renewable energy capacity, doubling the annual rate of energy-efficiency improvements by 2030, transitioning away from fossil fuels, reducing non-carbon dioxide emissions and halting and reversing deforestation and forest degradation.
UNEP warned that progress towards most of these objectives remained insufficient, requiring stronger policies, increased investment and more effective implementation.
The report also identified the forthcoming second Global Stocktake, which begins next month at the COP31 climate conference in Antalya, Türkiye, as an opportunity for countries to strengthen mitigation commitments and establish clearer, measurable targets for 2035 and 2040.
Under the proposed pathway, countries would need to reduce coal, oil and gas shares in total energy supply by at least 55 per cent, 15 per cent and five per cent respectively by 2035, relative to 2025 levels.
By 2040, the required reductions would increase to at least 75 per cent for coal, 30 per cent for oil and 35 per cent for gas.
The findings reinforce growing calls for governments to move beyond climate promises and deliver rapid emissions reductions, protect forests and expand renewable energy to limit future warming and safeguard vulnerable communities.
