By Abbas Nazil
Former Brazilian environment minister Marina Silva has warned that a potential presidency of Flávio Bolsonaro could reverse environmental protection gains and accelerate the destruction of the Amazon rainforest, putting Indigenous communities, biodiversity and efforts to combat climate change at risk.
Silva, a prominent environmentalist who served under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva until April 2026, said Bolsonaro could continue the policies pursued by his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, whose 2019 to 2022 administration was associated with rising deforestation and weakened environmental enforcement.
She expressed concern that a new administration led by the younger Bolsonaro could encourage illegal mining, invasions of Indigenous territories and violence against Indigenous and Quilombola communities.
According to Silva, the consequences could extend beyond the Amazon to other Brazilian ecosystems and undermine years of work to strengthen conservation and restore international funding for rainforest protection.
Her warning comes ahead of Brazil’s presidential runoff election scheduled for 25 October, in which Flávio Bolsonaro is challenging Lula after securing more votes than the incumbent in the first round.
Silva said the possibility of another Bolsonaro administration was particularly troubling at a time when Brazil was working towards reducing deforestation and pursuing a target of eliminating it by 2030.
During Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency, environmental and Indigenous protection agencies faced significant setbacks, while illegal land clearing and other activities damaged forest ecosystems.
Silva recalled taking over the environment ministry in January 2023 and encountering what she described as a severely weakened institution.
Under Lula, the government deployed security forces to remove illegal miners from Indigenous territories, including the Yanomami Indigenous territory, while efforts were intensified to strengthen environmental enforcement.
Silva said these interventions had contributed to a substantial decline in Amazon deforestation.
The area of rainforest lost annually fell by nearly 50% under Lula, she said, comparing an estimated 2,600 square kilometres lost in 2026 with almost 11,600 square kilometres recorded during Jair Bolsonaro’s final year in office.
She also pointed to the removal of illegal miners and ranchers from several Indigenous territories and the restoration of international funding for rainforest conservation after support had been frozen during the previous administration.
However, Silva fears these achievements could be reversed if Bolsonaro wins the election.
She also warned that the effects of environmental destruction could become more severe as Brazil faces the possibility of an intense El Niño event, which could worsen droughts, flooding and other extreme weather conditions.
Silva argued that a government unwilling to prioritise climate adaptation, mitigation and prevention would leave communities and ecosystems more vulnerable to such threats.
Her concerns also extend to Brazil’s wider political landscape, following gains by right-wing lawmakers in the recent congressional elections.
Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party secured 19 of the 54 Senate seats contested and 121 seats in the 513-member lower house, strengthening its influence over legislation affecting environmental and Indigenous rights.
Silva warned that lawmakers could seek to weaken existing protections, including measures safeguarding conservation areas and Indigenous territories.
She said the risks were not limited to the Amazon, identifying the Atlantic Forest, Cerrado, Pantanal and Pampa as other ecosystems potentially threatened by policies that prioritise resource extraction and agricultural expansion over conservation.
The former minister also expressed concern about the possible influence of the United States under President Donald Trump, arguing that closer alignment with Washington could encourage greater exploitation of Brazil’s natural resources.
Beyond environmental issues, Silva warned that a Bolsonaro return could threaten social progress achieved under Lula, including efforts to reduce hunger and expand access to higher education.
She also raised concerns about Brazil’s democratic institutions following Flávio Bolsonaro’s pledge to “re-democratise” the country and consider constitutional changes that could permit longer presidential terms.
Silva questioned the meaning of the proposal, warning that constitutional changes could be used to concentrate political power and weaken institutional checks and balances.
Despite the concerns, she said she remained hopeful that Lula could win the runoff election and urged voters who did not participate in the first round to consider the potential consequences of their choices.
A Datafolha poll published on Thursday gave Bolsonaro a 52% to 48% lead over Lula, highlighting the challenge facing the incumbent ahead of the decisive vote.
Silva, who has defended the Amazon since the 1980s, pledged to continue campaigning for environmental protection, Indigenous rights and democratic governance, warning that the outcome of the election could have far-reaching consequences for Brazil’s forests and the global climate.
