By Faridat Salifu
The growing threat of El Niño is casting fresh uncertainty over cocoa production in West Africa, with industry forecasts pointing to weaker harvests in Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire and Nigeria despite recent improvements in global supplies.
Analysts say hotter and drier conditions associated with the weather phenomenon could reduce soil moisture, stress cocoa trees and lower yields across the region, which accounts for more than half of global cocoa production.
Ghana’s cocoa regulator, COCOBOD, projects the country’s cocoa output for the 2026/27 season could decline to between 450,000 and 550,000 metric tonnes from the 750,000 metric tonnes expected this season.
The regulator attributed the expected decline to swollen shoot disease, ageing cocoa plantations and adverse weather linked to El Niño.
In Côte d’Ivoire, early field assessments indicate below-average cherelle formation, signalling a weaker outlook for the main crop that begins in September.
Although more recent surveys show cocoa pod development has improved, production is still estimated at about 1.8 million metric tonnes, roughly 18 per cent lower than the previous season.
Nigeria is also expected to record lower production, with the Cocoa Association of Nigeria projecting output will fall by 11 per cent year-on-year to 305,000 metric tonnes during the 2025/26 season.
The United States Climate Prediction Center has warned that the developing El Niño could become one of the strongest in more than 75 years, increasing concerns over weather-related production losses across West Africa.
The weather outlook has prompted commodity intelligence firm StoneX to reduce its forecast for the global cocoa surplus in the 2026/27 season to 25,000 metric tonnes from an earlier estimate of 149,000 metric tonnes.
Transgraph Consulting also expects the global surplus to shrink significantly to 80,000 metric tonnes from 415,000 metric tonnes in the previous season as worldwide production declines.
Despite the production concerns, stronger cocoa arrivals from Côte d’Ivoire and higher exports from Nigeria have recently eased supply pressures.
Farmers in Côte d’Ivoire delivered 2.11 million metric tonnes of cocoa to ports between October 2025 and late July 2026, representing a 21 per cent increase compared to the same period a year earlier.
Nigeria’s cocoa exports also increased by 30 per cent year-on-year to 18,922 metric tonnes in June.
Demand for cocoa remained mixed during the second quarter, with processing declining in Europe but increasing in North America and Asia.
Market analysts say the combination of climate risks, disease outbreaks and ageing cocoa farms is likely to remain the biggest determinant of global cocoa supplies over the coming season.
