By Abbas Nazil
World leaders gathering for the 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31) in Antalya, Türkiye, from November 9 to 20 face mounting pressure to accelerate emissions reductions, increase climate finance and strengthen support for communities suffering the impacts of global warming.
The conference comes amid worsening climate-related disasters, rising fossil fuel energy costs and international conflicts that threaten cooperation on urgent environmental challenges.
Recent United Nations reports warn that existing national climate commitments remain insufficient to keep global warming within the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit set under the Paris Agreement.
According to the 2026 Emissions Gap Report, global greenhouse gas emissions would need to fall by 18 per cent by 2030, 45 per cent by 2035 and 69 per cent by 2040, relative to 2025 levels, to limit the extent to which global warming exceeds 1.5 degrees Celsius.
However, current national commitments are projected to reduce emissions by only five to eight per cent by 2030 and 11 to 15 per cent by 2035, leaving the world on a trajectory towards approximately 2.6 degrees Celsius of warming this century.
Such a temperature increase could intensify extreme heat, wildfires and sea-level rise, threaten food and water security, damage infrastructure and accelerate the destruction of vulnerable ecosystems.
The urgency of action has been reinforced by recent disasters, including devastating floods in Nepal associated with glacier collapse.
The disaster has reportedly killed more than 1,500 people, with thousands still missing, while economic losses have placed an enormous burden on the low-income country.
The conference is expected to address five major challenges, including the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy, climate adaptation, loss and damage, the use of scientific evidence in negotiations and the provision of adequate funding to vulnerable countries.
Türkiye and Australia will share leadership responsibilities at COP31, following an agreement reached at the previous climate conference.
Türkiye’s Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change Minister, Murat Kurum, will serve as COP31 President, while Australia’s Climate Change and Energy Minister, Chris Bowen, has been appointed President of Negotiations.
One proposal expected to feature prominently is a global electrification target aimed at increasing the share of final energy demand supplied by electricity to 35 per cent by 2035, from slightly above 20 per cent currently.
Climate advocates say expanding electricity use in transport, industry and buildings must be accompanied by a fair transition away from fossil fuels, greater energy efficiency and increased deployment of renewable energy.
They argue that renewable electricity, particularly solar power, offers opportunities to improve energy security and reduce emissions, but current progress is not yet displacing fossil fuels quickly enough.
Climate adaptation and loss and damage are also expected to be central to negotiations, as vulnerable communities struggle to cope with increasingly destructive weather events.
Advocates are calling for adaptation finance to be tripled by 2035, alongside increased funding for communities already experiencing climate-related losses that they cannot adequately prevent or recover from.
The Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage has agreed to set aside $21.6 million in response to Nepal’s urgent request following the deadly floods, highlighting continuing concerns about whether international assistance matches the scale of climate-related destruction.
Another concern is the growing gap between climate science and international negotiations.
The suspension of a recent meeting of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), following disagreements over the timeline for its seventh assessment cycle, has raised concerns about whether updated scientific findings will be available in time to guide major climate decisions.
Countries are expected to complete the second global stocktake under the Paris Agreement in 2028, making the timing of scientific assessments important for future emissions targets and climate policies.
Climate campaigners are also urging wealthier, high-emitting countries to take greater responsibility for reducing emissions and supporting lower-income nations, which often face severe climate impacts despite contributing less to historical greenhouse gas emissions.
A preparatory meeting held in Fiji in October highlighted the priorities of Pacific Island nations, including stronger climate ambition, greater equity, increased climate finance and recognition of the role of Indigenous people, young people and local communities.
The meeting endorsed the Taku Pakasoa Declaration, which emphasised collective action and the importance of science-informed climate policies.
Despite the political and financial challenges, climate advocates maintain that many solutions needed to address the crisis already exist, including renewable energy, improved energy efficiency and measures to strengthen community resilience.
COP31 will test whether governments can translate existing commitments into stronger action capable of protecting vulnerable populations, reducing emissions and securing a more stable climate for future generations.
