What starts as abnormal warming thousands of kilometres away in the Pacific Ocean is now determining whether farmers in Jigawa harvest millet or lose everything to drought. This is El Niño, and climate experts say Nigeria is feeling its impact more than ever. According to the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become unusually warmer than normal. This single warming event disrupts the entire global atmospheric circulation known as the Walker Circulation, which acts like the engine that moves rain around the world.
For Nigeria, the consequences are direct. The warming weakens the moist southwesterly winds that blow from the Atlantic Ocean to bring rainfall. Normally, these winds push the Inter-Tropical Discontinuity (ITD) – the boundary between dry and wet air – far north into Jigawa, Kano and Sokoto during rainy season. During El Niño, the ITD fails to move north. “The result is northern Nigeria gets less rain while southern Nigeria experiences irregular and intense rainfall,” NiMet explained. This is opposite of La Niña, which typically brings more rainfall to Nigeria. With over 70% of Nigerians dependent on rain-fed agriculture, scientists warn that understanding how El Niño reaches Nigeria is no longer academic, but a matter of food security.
During El Niño years, northern Nigeria faces severe rainfall deficit and prolonged dry season, with direct consequences for food production. Records from NiMet show that the strong El Niño events of 2015/2016 and 2023/2024 caused late onset of rains in Jigawa, Kano and Sokoto states. The rainy season which normally begins in April/May started as late as June/July, shortening the growing season by almost two months. Data indicates total annual rainfall dropped by 20 to 40 percent across the Sahelian belt. This deficit leads to severe drought, crop failure for staple crops like millet, sorghum and maize which are the main food crops in Dutse, and drying of water sources including rivers, wells and campus water storage tanks. For instance, in 2016, Jigawa State lost over 30% of its expected grain yield due to drought linked to El Niño. Soil becomes dry, hard and compacted, with topsoil moisture dropping below 10%. Consequently, soil microbial activity and nutrient cycling reduce drastically, as microbes need moisture to decompose organic matter. This affects soil physicochemical properties such as low organic carbon, high temperature and reduced fertility, which is directly relevant to soil studies in Federal University Dutse.
While north suffers drought, southern Nigeria often suffers opposite – intense, short-duration rainfall leading to urban flooding. El Niño displaces heavy rainfall to coastal areas like Lagos, Port Harcourt, Bayelsa. This causes flooding, sea level rise, and coastal erosion. In 2023 El Niño, Lagos and Bayelsa recorded extreme floods that destroyed farms and displaced thousands. It also increases sea surface temperature in Gulf of Guinea, leading to more severe storms and damage to fishing communities.
Agriculture which employs 70 percent of Nigerians is the worst hit by El Niño. Drought in northern Nigeria reduces grain production drastically, causing food inflation and hunger. During the 2016 El Niño, price of millet and sorghum rose by over 50 percent in markets in Kano, Jigawa and Sokoto due to crop failure. Livestock die due to lack of pasture and water, forcing Fulani herdsmen to migrate south early, which increases farmer-herder conflicts. On health, drought leads to meningitis outbreak in northern Nigeria due to excessive heat, dust and low humidity, while in the south, stagnant flood water increases malaria and cholera as mosquitoes breed rapidly. Studies in Federal University Dutse have shown high rate of indoor resting mosquitoes in male hostels during dry conditions, linked to water storage practices worsened by El Niño-induced water scarcity.
Prediction of El Niño has improved significantly as NiMet and NOAA can now forecast its occurrence 6 to 9 months ahead using advanced sea surface temperature monitoring in the Pacific. The recent strong El Niño which lasted from May 2023 to April 2024 was one of the five strongest on record and caused severe drought in northern Nigeria and floods in the south. Nigeria is now experiencing a transition from neutral to La Niña conditions in 2026, bringing some relief. However, experts warn adaptation is critical. Strategies include early planting of drought-resistant varieties like early-maturing millet, construction of more water storage tanks and small dams, and massive tree planting to improve microclimate. This is why studies on tree diversity in orchards and Mathai National Park are important, because trees help reduce El Niño effects by conserving soil moisture, providing shade, lowering soil temperature and supporting biodiversity that sustains food security.
To reduce future impacts of El Niño, Nigeria must adopt proactive measures backed by facts. First, NiMet and NOAA early warning should be strengthened, as accurate 6-9 months forecast can help northern farmers plant early-maturing millet and avoid over 30% grain yield loss recorded during the 2015/2016 El Niño. Second, government should invest in more water storage tanks and small earth dams in northern states like Jigawa, Kano and Sokoto, where rainfall drops by 20-40% during El Niño events. Third, massive tree planting and conservation of threatened savanna species like Khaya senegalensis and Pterocarpus erinaceus is vital, as trees conserve soil moisture, lower soil temperature and improve microbial activity. Fourth, health authorities should pre-position meningitis vaccines for the north where dry, dusty conditions increase outbreaks, and malaria and cholera kits for the south where flooding creates stagnant breeding sites. Finally, community sensitization on climate-smart agriculture must be scaled up nationwide.
The implication of El Niño in Nigeria is far-reaching, as it creates a double burden of drought in the north and flooding in the south, directly threatening food security for over 70% of the population dependent on rain-fed agriculture. It reduces rainfall by 20-40%, drives food inflation, livestock loss and health crises like meningitis and malaria. In conclusion, El Niño which starts as warming in the Pacific has become a major driver of climate hardship in Nigeria. With the 2023/2024 event ranked among the five strongest on record, Nigeria must move from reaction to adaptation through early warning, water storage, tree conservation and climate-smart agriculture to protect its economy and people.
