By Abdullahi Lukman
Global temperatures are virtually certain to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in 2026, with a 20 per cent chance that the year could match or surpass 2024 as the hottest on record, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.
The agency also projected that the average global temperature between 2023 and 2026 will exceed the 1.5C threshold established under the 2015 Paris Agreement to limit the worst effects of climate change.
The warning comes as nearly 100 agenda items have been tabled for negotiations at COP31, the two-week UN climate summit opening on November 9 in Antalya, Türkiye, where delegates will confront a year of escalating climate disasters.
In its latest monthly bulletin, Copernicus reported that October was the warmest October ever recorded, with average global surface air temperature at 1.75C above pre-industrial levels. It was the third consecutive month in which temperatures exceeded the 1.5C mark.
Samantha Burgess, Strategic Lead for Climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF, said the unusually high temperatures were driven by an exceptionally strong El Niño phenomenon alongside human-induced global warming.
She noted that the climate pattern had contributed to record global and ocean surface temperatures.
El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon characterised by warming of surface waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean, can influence weather patterns worldwide, increasing the likelihood of droughts and flooding while intensifying the effects of human-caused climate change.
Climate forecasters expect the current El Niño event to peak later this year, with some projections suggesting it could become one of the strongest ever recorded. Copernicus also reported that the phenomenon recently produced record temperatures in a key Pacific region.
Scientists have warned that the ongoing warming trend could make 2027 the hottest year on record.
The latest findings underline the urgency at COP31, following a year marked by catastrophic climate impacts, including the glacier collapse in Nepal that claimed over 1,000 lives with about 5,000 missing, extreme heatwaves across Europe and devastating wildfires in Indonesia.
Under the Paris Agreement adopted in 2015, countries committed to keeping global warming well below 2C above pre-industrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5C. However, the United Nations warned in September that the long-term 1.5C target would likely be exceeded within the coming years.
Scientists emphasised that rapidly reducing greenhouse gas emissions, particularly from fossil fuels, remains essential to limiting the duration of temperature overshoot and eventually bringing global temperatures down.
