By Faridat Salifu
The United Kingdom risks a steep fall in food self-sufficiency by mid-century unless urgent reforms are made to balance land use, food production, and environmental policies, according to a new report.
The study, UK Food Security – Outlook to 2050, published by the think-tank Science for Sustainable Agriculture and led by agricultural economist Dr Derrick Wilkinson, warns that up to 23 percent of farmland could be lost by 2050 to housing, solar projects, tree planting, and carbon schemes, with severe implications for the nation’s ability to feed itself.
Drawing on 25 years of government data, the report found that farmland has already shrunk by 771,000 hectares since 2000, reducing per capita food output by 5 percent despite yield gains.
If current trends continue, overall food production could fall by a third and imports could rise by 260 percent, leaving households exposed to global price shocks.
“We are struggling to keep up with farmland losses,” Dr Wilkinson said, stressing that food security should be treated as national security.
He urged policymakers to boost productivity through science and innovation, shift towards “land sparing” practices that protect high-yield farmland, and align agricultural, environmental, and trade strategies.
Industry groups echoed the warning. NFU president Tom Bradshaw said protecting farmland is essential to sustain the £150bn agri-food sector, while Tenant Farmers Association chief George Dunn cautioned that government schemes risk pushing tenant farmers off the land.
CLA deputy president Gavin Lane said flexibility is needed but agreed that farmland must be safeguarded.
Defra rejected claims that food security is under threat, describing the report’s findings as a “worst-case scenario.”
The department said the forthcoming Land Use Framework will set out a cross-government plan to balance competing demands, safeguard productive land, and support both farming and nature recovery.
According to Defra, the UK currently produces 65 percent of its food needs and 77 percent of what it can grow domestically, supported by £11.8bn in funding for nature-friendly farming and food production during this parliament.
