The climate outlook for Nigeria in 2026 reveals a complicated scenario of early and late rainfall patterns, altered cessation times, extended dry periods, above-average temperatures, and increased risks across various sectors.
This was announced by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) during the unveiling of the 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP) in Abuja on Tuesday highlighting the urgent need for climate-aware national planning.
The SCP was presented on February 10, 2026, at the Nigerian Air Force Conference Centre in Abuja, attended by high-ranking government officials, policymakers, scientists, development partners, and private sector representatives. The event also included the release of the 2025 State of the Climate in Nigeria, further emphasizing the connection between climate science, economic resilience, and national development.
In his keynote address, the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Barrister Festus Keyamo, referred to the Seasonal Climate Prediction as a crucial national resource that has progressed beyond simple weather forecasting to become an essential tool for governance and economic decision-making.
“The Seasonal Climate Prediction is no longer merely about weather forecasts,” Keyamo stated. “It has transformed into a critical asset for national planning, investment strategies, disaster risk management, and economic resilience.”
He pointed out that NiMet’s early warning products have significantly enhanced agricultural productivity and disaster preparedness in recent years, receiving praise from both public and private sector users.
The minister emphasized that climate variability and change are now fundamental aspects of modern governance, directly impacting aviation safety, food security, national security strategies, infrastructure development, and the overall well-being of citizens.
“Extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts, severe thunderstorms, windstorms, and sandstorms are now occurring with alarming regularity,” Keyamo noted. “This reality necessitates that governments integrate climate data, meteorological science, and early warning systems into their national planning frameworks.”
He highlighted that under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s leadership, the Federal Government has prioritized economic stability, food security, infrastructure resilience, climate adaptation, and the safeguarding of lives and livelihoods.
“In this context, timely and accurate weather and climate information is no longer optional,” he said. “It is a strategic enabler of development and effective governance. The 2026 SCP directly supports the Renewed Hope Agenda by translating complex climate signals into actionable guidance for policymakers and investors across all sectors.”
Reiterating his ministry’s support for NiMet, Keyamo affirmed that reliable meteorological services are essential for safe, efficient, and sustainable development.
Providing historical context, the minister traced Nigeria’s climate forecasting roots to 1886, when the country’s first weather observing station was established, commending NiMet for evolving into a modern, multi-sectoral agency.
“For over 140 years, NiMet has grown into an institution whose services cut across agriculture, disaster risk reduction, water resources, health, transportation, energy planning and national security,” he said.
On the scientific basis of the forecast, Keyamo disclosed that the 2026 SCP was produced using global best practices, combining long-term climatological data, current observations and major global climate drivers such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole.
The SCP forecasts an early start to the rainy season in states such as Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Benue, Kogi, Nasarawa, and Oyo, while Borno State is anticipated to have a later onset. Rainfall is expected to end earlier than usual in parts of Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Imo, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Kogi, and Niger States, whereas a delayed conclusion of the season is predicted for Lagos, Ogun, Anambra, Enugu, Cross River, Benue, Nasarawa, and Kaduna States.
Most of the country is expected to receive near-normal annual rainfall, with above-normal levels anticipated in Borno, Sokoto, Kebbi, Kaduna, Enugu, Cross River, Abia, Ebonyi, Akwa Ibom, and the Federal Capital Territory. Conversely, below-normal rainfall is forecast for areas in Katsina, Zamfara, Kwara, Oyo, and Ogun States.
The report also emphasizes the risk of significant dry spells, including severe dry periods lasting over 15 days from March to May in parts of Oyo and Ogun States, and extended dry spells of up to 21 days during the June,July,August period in several northern and central states. The August Break is expected to be particularly severe and prolonged in Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti, and parts of Oyo States.
