By Abbas Nazil
Nigeria and Ghana are facing a difficult energy transition as both countries seek to expand electricity access and maintain reliable power while reducing dependence on fossil fuels and meeting long-term climate commitments.
Both countries continue to rely heavily on natural gas for electricity generation, while unreliable power supply has left households and businesses dependent on petrol and diesel generators.
Nigeria’s national grid recorded 12 collapses in 2024, with further incidents reported in 2025, while Ghana has also experienced transmission disturbances, including a nationwide blackout in March 2021.
The challenges highlight the difficulty of moving away from fossil fuels in countries where millions of people still lack reliable electricity and businesses depend on generators for daily operations.
Nigeria has committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2060, while its Energy Transition Plan envisages a significant role for gas during the earlier stages of the transition before its contribution declines towards 2060.
Ghana’s Renewable Energy Master Plan, covering 2016 to 2030, targets 10 per cent renewable energy penetration by 2030.
Both countries also use gas-fired power generation to support electricity supply and grid stability as renewable sources such as solar and wind fluctuate.
The energy transition involves more than replacing fossil-fuel power plants with renewable energy, as it also includes improvements in energy efficiency, electrification of transport, cleaner cooking and the expansion of mini-grids for communities beyond the reach of national electricity networks.
For Nigeria and Ghana, affordability and reliability remain major considerations because households and businesses are already dealing with high energy costs and inadequate electricity supply.
Nigeria’s removal of the petrol subsidy has further affected transport, food and generator costs, although the policy was primarily introduced as a fiscal reform rather than a climate measure.
The impact of the reform on households and businesses has increased attention on the need to channel available resources towards reliable electricity, public transport, clean cooking and social protection.
The often-cited target of 300 gigawatts of renewable energy by 2030 is an Africa-wide ambition under the Africa Renewable Energy Initiative and is not Nigeria’s national renewable energy target.
An earlier 2018 projection by an Energy Commission of Nigeria official suggested the country could require 100 gigawatts of electricity capacity by 2030 under strong growth, rising to 300 gigawatts under higher-growth scenarios.
The projection referred to potential electricity capacity requirements rather than a specific renewable energy target.
Nigeria’s current energy framework focuses on universal energy access, renewable energy expansion and achieving net zero by 2060, including the deployment of solar power and battery storage.
However, inadequate grid reliability means many households and businesses continue to pay both electricity bills and the cost of operating private generators.
Ghana also faces financial and operational challenges in its power sector, including debts owed to independent power producers and fuel suppliers.
The country’s energy-sector financial difficulties have affected the sustainability of electricity generation and investment, while international financial institutions have identified the challenges as a fiscal and operational concern.
The transition also creates the possibility of stranded assets if investments in oil and gas infrastructure become uneconomic as climate policies strengthen and renewable energy becomes more competitive.
While gas can contribute to electricity reliability during the transition, continued investment in fossil-fuel infrastructure could create long-term dependence or leave some assets underused as countries move towards lower-carbon energy systems.
Renewable energy expansion could provide opportunities for both countries, particularly through utility-scale solar projects, commercial installations, solar home systems and mini-grids in areas where extending the national grid is expensive.
However, wider deployment of renewable energy would require investment in transmission and distribution networks, energy storage, regulation and technical skills.
Both countries are also vulnerable to climate-related impacts including flooding, drought, coastal risks and disruptions to livelihoods, making the resilience of energy infrastructure an important component of their transition strategies.
The shift will require new skills in renewable energy, energy efficiency and battery storage, while communities are expected to have a role in decisions concerning land use, employment and energy projects.
Climate finance, private investment and technology transfer are also identified as important sources of funding for the scale of infrastructure and technological changes required to expand cleaner and more reliable energy systems.
