By Abbas Nazil
EU member states remain divided over key climate commitments just weeks before a UN deadline, raising fears that the bloc may weaken its position ahead of the crucial COP30 climate summit in Brazil.
A leaked draft seen by the Guardian shows that the negotiating text contains blanks and placeholder language instead of concrete emissions reduction figures, a sign of ongoing disagreements between the European Commission and member states.
Experts warn that the lack of defined targets undermines momentum at a time when only 28 of 196 countries have submitted new nationally determined contributions (NDCs).
Niklas Höhne of the New Climate Institute described the situation as “extremely urgent,” stressing that EU leadership could trigger global action.
The EU’s current commitment is a 55 percent reduction in emissions by 2030 compared with 1990 levels.
To stay on track for net zero by 2050, analysts argue that the bloc needs a 74 percent to 78 percent reduction by 2035, but the leaked draft provides no figures.
Instead, it implies a simple linear pathway that experts say fails to align with the 1.5C Paris target.
Political divisions are deepening.
French president Emmanuel Macron has floated the possibility of delays or diluted targets, while Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni are expected to push for weaker commitments.
Germany’s chancellor Friedrich Merz faces pressure from Greens at home but may waver.
Campaigners say delays contradict the urgency of climate action, noting that clean energy drove nearly a third of Europe’s economic growth last year.
Andreas Sieber of 350.org accused leaders of “playing a reckless political game,” warning that weakened ambition undermines credibility, threatens jobs and investment, and risks failure at COP30.
The uncertainty also coincides with US president Donald Trump’s renewed withdrawal from the Paris agreement, emboldening countries like Russia and Saudi Arabia to obstruct progress.
China and India have yet to present new NDCs, adding further strain.
Observers caution that without strong EU leadership, the global climate effort could falter.
The European Commission declined to comment on the leaked document.
