By Abdullahi Lukman
A looming El Niño event expected to influence West African weather into the first half of 2027 has renewed concerns over Africa’s climate vulnerability, as the continent’s climate negotiators meet in Antalya, Türkiye, to strengthen their demands for international support ahead of COP31.
The Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMet) warned in an advisory issued on October 29, 2026, that a very strong El Niño event was developing in the Pacific Ocean and could intensify weather-related challenges across West Africa.
The development has heightened concerns about potential disruptions to agriculture, water resources, electricity generation and public health, reinforcing calls for stronger climate adaptation measures across the continent.
According to GMet, projections from international climate monitoring institutions, including the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), indicate that the event could peak between now and January 2027 before gradually weakening during the first half of the year.
Ghana remains particularly vulnerable to El Niño-related rainfall variability, with previous strong episodes in 1982/83, 1997/98 and 2015/16 associated with significant pressures on agricultural production, water availability and hydroelectric power generation.
The anticipated weather conditions could disrupt planting seasons, reduce crop yields and threaten food security, while prolonged dry spells could lower reservoir levels and constrain electricity generation from hydropower facilities.
GMet also warned that extended heat and dry conditions could create additional public health risks, particularly for vulnerable populations.
The agency has therefore emphasised the importance of translating weather forecasts into early interventions across agriculture, healthcare, water management and food security.
Against this backdrop, the African Group of Negotiators on Climate Change (AGN) opened a two-day strategic meeting in Antalya on November 1 to coordinate Africa’s negotiating position ahead of the 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31).
The meeting is expected to strengthen continental cooperation and consolidate demands for increased adaptation financing, equitable climate policies and stronger support for countries facing severe climate impacts.
Opening the meeting, AGN Chair Nana Dr. Antwi-Boasiako Amoah called for unity, cooperation and collective commitment among African negotiators, stressing that a coordinated approach would be essential to advancing the continent’s hello good evening priorities in international climate discussions.
He commended members for their continued dedication and urged them to ensure that their collective efforts translate into meaningful outcomes for Africa.
The AGN plays a central role in representing African countries within the United Nations climate negotiation process, particularly on issues affecting developing economies and climate-vulnerable communities.
Its Antalya consultations are expected to strengthen the continent’s diplomatic position and improve its capacity to pursue agreements that address adaptation needs, development priorities and the financing gap facing African nations.
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The developments in Ghana and Türkiye underscore the growing need to connect international climate commitments with practical measures to address climate threats.
As African countries prepare for COP31, the negotiators face the challenge of securing stronger global support while ensuring that climate forecasts inform effective national preparedness strategies to protect livelihoods, food systems, water supplies and energy infrastructure.
