By Abdullahi Lukman
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has warned that the intensifying El Niño phenomenon could worsen food insecurity, water shortages, public health challenges and livelihood pressures across West Africa, urging member states to strengthen climate preparedness and early-warning systems.
In an advisory issued through its Disaster Operations Centre (EDOC), the regional organisation said the climate phenomenon could reach strong to very strong intensity towards the end of 2026 and continue influencing weather conditions until around February 2027.
ECOWAS warned that above-average temperatures, irregular rainfall and prolonged dry spells could affect agricultural production, water availability and public health, with vulnerable communities likely to face increased risks.
The warning comes as the region transitions from the rainy season into the dry and dusty Harmattan period. The Commission noted that rainfall patterns in 2026 had been inconsistent, with both excessive and below-average rainfall recorded in different
locations, alongside persistent high temperatures.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon characterised by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It influences global atmospheric circulation and can alter rainfall patterns and temperatures in different regions.
Citing the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), ECOWAS said the current episode was already established and could become exceptionally strong, potentially affecting weather conditions across several parts of the world.
Nigeria’s Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has also expressed concern over the developing phenomenon, reporting observations indicating the onset of a strong El Niño event in 2026.
However, ECOWAS cautioned that its effects would not be uniform across West Africa, as other climate factors, including conditions in the tropical Atlantic, Mediterranean and Indian oceans, could influence regional weather patterns.
According to forecasts from the AGRHYMET Regional Climate Centre, above-normal temperatures were expected across almost the entire West African region between September and November 2026. Some coastal communities along the Gulf of Guinea could also experience heavy rainfall and localised flooding during the second rainy season.
On agriculture and food security, the Commission warned that rising temperatures and late-season dry spells could reduce crop yields, soil moisture and pasture availability, while flooding could destroy farmlands and damage agricultural infrastructure.
It stressed the need for close monitoring of food security throughout the 2026/2027 agricultural season, particularly in communities already vulnerable to climate-related shocks.
ECOWAS also identified declining water reserves, reduced river flows and increased evaporation as potential consequences of below-average rainfall and rising temperatures.
Such conditions could place additional pressure on domestic water supplies, agriculture, livestock production and hydroelectric power generation, threatening livelihoods and economic activities.
The organisation further warned that existing challenges, including food insecurity, displacement, conflicts and economic difficulties, could worsen the humanitarian consequences of climate-related disruptions across the region.
On public health, ECOWAS identified heat exhaustion, dehydration and other heat-related illnesses as major concerns, particularly among children, elderly persons, pregnant women, outdoor workers and people living with chronic health conditions.
It also warned that food shortages, flooding and water scarcity could increase the risks of malnutrition, cholera and acute diarrhoeal diseases.
Additionally, stagnant water following heavy rainfall could create favourable conditions for malaria transmission, while dusty Harmattan conditions could increase respiratory illnesses and meningitis risks, particularly across the West African meningitis belt.
To minimise the potential impact, ECOWAS urged member states to strengthen the monitoring of weather forecasts and early-warning information provided by national meteorological agencies, the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD) and the Commission’s Disaster Operations Centre.
Residents were advised to maintain adequate hydration, use safe drinking water, wear lightweight clothing and reduce outdoor activities during the hottest periods of the day. The Commission also encouraged preventive measures against malaria and other seasonal diseases.
For official travel, ECOWAS recommended checking weather forecasts and road conditions before departure, avoiding flooded routes and making provisions for possible flight delays.
The advisory also called on the Commission to strengthen workplace safety arrangements by providing adequate ventilation, cooling facilities and drinking water, while considering flexible working hours during periods of extreme heat.
It further recommended incorporating climate risks into official travel planning, maintaining virtual meeting alternatives and reviewing emergency arrangements for electricity, water supply and remote working.
ECOWAS emphasised that sustained regional cooperation, continuous monitoring of global climate conditions and timely sharing of reliable weather information would be essential to improving preparedness and reducing the potential effects of El Niño across West Africa.
