By Abbas Nazil
Governments attending the 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31) in Antalya, Türkiye, are facing growing pressure to commit to large-scale carbon dioxide removal strategies alongside aggressive emissions reductions, as scientists warn that the world is certain to exceed the 1.5°C global warming threshold established under the 2015 Paris Agreement.
The 12-day climate summit, which opened on Monday, November 9, 2026, comes at a critical moment following the United Nations Environment Programme’s (UNEP) confirmation that global warming will overshoot the internationally agreed temperature limit under all plausible emissions scenarios.
Scientists and climate advocates are urging participating countries to make carbon dioxide removal a central component of negotiations, arguing that cutting future emissions alone will no longer be sufficient to return global temperatures to safer levels after the anticipated overshoot.
UNEP’s latest report, titled *Limiting Overshoot*, outlines pathways for bringing global temperatures back below 1.5°C before the end of the century.
It emphasises that achieving this objective will require countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to nearly zero while removing hundreds of billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide already accumulated in the atmosphere.
The proposed approaches include technological carbon removal systems and nature-based solutions such as reforestation, which could help absorb atmospheric carbon dioxide while supporting ecosystem restoration and biodiversity conservation.
According to climate researchers, limiting both the magnitude and duration of temperature overshoot is expected to become an important issue during negotiations, particularly as countries reconsider their strategies for achieving the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature objectives.
Clea Schumer, a research associate at the World Resources Institute, said discussions about limiting overshoot could shape negotiations, although carbon dioxide removal has received limited attention in previous climate agreements.
Despite the growing scientific consensus on the need for carbon removal, no country has so far incorporated clearly quantified carbon dioxide removal targets into its climate commitments submitted to the United Nations.
Steve Smith, a climate researcher at the University of Oxford, said governments must establish measurable targets and clear implementation plans to achieve carbon removal at the scale required to reverse temperature overshoot.
The debate also reflects changing positions among environmental organisations, some of which previously expressed concerns that carbon removal technologies could distract governments from reducing fossil fuel consumption.
However, the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), an environmental advocacy organisation based in New York, has called for greater support for developing a carbon removal industry, describing it as an important component of efforts to stabilise the climate.
Beyond carbon removal, COP31 is expected to renew discussions about the effectiveness of international climate negotiations, with some scientists arguing that the existing consensus-based decision-making system has slowed progress on critical climate commitments.
Johan Rockström, a climate scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, said the inability of governments to prevent the anticipated overshoot demonstrates the need for an honest assessment of the global climate policy process.
Rockström, who advises a coalition of approximately 60 countries working alongside the COP process, has advocated reforms that would allow climate decisions to be adopted through majority voting rather than requiring unanimous agreement among participating countries.
He argued that the current consensus system allows a small number of countries to obstruct decisions supported by the majority, potentially delaying urgent action on fossil fuel transition and other climate priorities.
The coalition, which seeks to accelerate the global transition away from fossil fuels, held its first meeting in April 2026 in Santa Marta, Colombia.
Nevertheless, climate advocates maintain that the annual UN climate conferences remain important platforms for international cooperation, despite limitations in their ability to independently deliver the required emissions reductions.
Available projections indicate that the world’s expected warming trajectory has improved since the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015, when global temperatures were projected to rise by approximately 4°C by the end of the century.
Under current policies, however, the United Nations estimates that global warming could still reach between 2.6°C and 2.8°C, significantly exceeding the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C ambition.
Climate researchers have consequently stressed that achieving meaningful progress will require stronger national policies, domestic implementation and sustained investments in emissions reduction and carbon removal rather than relying exclusively on international conferences.
As negotiations continue in Antalya, COP31 is expected to test governments’ willingness to translate scientific warnings into measurable commitments, particularly on carbon removal, fossil fuel transition and climate policy reforms, at a time when preventing temperature overshoot is no longer considered achievable.
