By Abbas Nazil
The climate crisis is reshaping the way conflicts around the world must be understood, as global warming and warfare become increasingly intertwined.
In 2024, Earth’s average temperature rose more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time, marking a critical threshold in the climate emergency.
At the same time, major conflicts such as those in Ukraine, Gaza, and Sudan continue to rage, underscoring the urgent need to examine how war exacerbates climate breakdown and how climate change in turn intensifies the risks and consequences of war.
Experts argue that war amplifies climate change through its destructive impact on the environment and its enormous greenhouse gas emissions.
Recent studies by Scientists for Global Responsibility and the Conflict and Environment Observatory estimate that the global carbon footprint of militaries exceeds that of Russia, the world’s fourth-largest emitter.
The United States is believed to have the highest military emissions.
Research led by Benjamin Neimark, Oliver Belcher, and Patrick Bigger found that if the US military were classified as a country, it would rank as the 47th-largest emitter of greenhouse gases worldwide, positioned between Peru and Portugal.
Such figures highlight the massive, often overlooked climate impact of military operations, weapons production, and post-war reconstruction.
Yet these estimates are built on limited data, with many countries releasing only partial emissions information.
In some cases, researchers must rely on government statistics and industrial data to calculate military-related emissions.
The opacity is especially acute in countries such as China and Russia, whose military emissions are nearly impossible to assess.
Civil society groups have recently stepped up calls for greater transparency in military climate reporting, stressing that emissions linked to conflicts like those in Ukraine and Gaza must be counted if the world is to confront the true scale of the climate challenge.
The climate crisis also heightens the stakes of armed conflict by intensifying resource scarcity, worsening displacement, and increasing vulnerability in fragile regions.
With rising temperatures, food insecurity, and water stress adding pressure to already unstable societies, conflict becomes more likely and more devastating when it occurs.
Analysts warn that without recognizing the deep interconnection between climate change and war, both issues will spiral further out of control.
War not only undermines environmental stability but also locks societies into carbon-intensive recovery processes, perpetuating cycles of destruction and emissions.
The urgent task, experts suggest, is to reframe security thinking around the dual crises of climate breakdown and armed conflict.
Understanding war in the context of climate change is no longer optional but essential to ensuring sustainable peace and stability in the decades ahead.
