By Abdulllahi Lukman
A new study warns that large parts of the Amazon rainforest could shift into degraded or savannah-like ecosystems at global warming levels of 1.5–1.9°C if deforestation expands to 22–28 percent.
The research, conducted by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and published in Nature, found that without further deforestation, such large-scale transformation would likely occur only at much higher warming levels of about 3.7–4°C.
Lead author Nico Wunderling said deforestation significantly weakens the forest’s resilience by reducing its ability to generate rainfall.
He warned that even moderate warming could trigger widespread and cascading environmental impacts.
The study notes that approximately 17–18 percent of the Amazon has already been lost, placing it close to a critical threshold. Researchers highlight that climate change and deforestation together intensify risks by disrupting rainfall patterns across the region.
Co-author Arie Staal explained that moisture loss in one part of the forest can affect areas hundreds or thousands of kilometres away, leading to broader drought conditions.
Scientists say the Amazon relies heavily on its own moisture recycling system, with up to half of its rainfall generated by water released from trees. As forest cover declines, this cycle weakens, increasing drought stress and the likelihood of further degradation.
According to Johan Rockström, continued deforestation threatens the Amazon’s role as a carbon sink and biodiversity hub, pushing it closer to a tipping point with global consequences.
Researchers stress that the outcome is not inevitable, urging immediate action to halt deforestation, restore degraded areas and reduce emissions to preserve the forest’s stability.