By Rasheeda Hamidu
Between 2021 and the first half of 2026, Regius Capital Limited found that rising formal financing to Nigeria’s agricultural sector had not translated into a corresponding increase in productive capacity, after analysing bank credit, capital-market instruments, development finance, private capital, public interventions and guarantees.
Regius presented the findings in its report, Financing Nigeria’s Agriculture: What Five Years of Credit, Capital and Output Data Reveal, which examined the relationship between agricultural financing, production capacity, food demand and trade.
According to the report, bank credit to Nigeria’s agricultural sector increased from N1.46 trillion at the end of 2021 to N3.81 trillion by January 2026.
Regius also reported that agrifood capital-market issuance reached about N1.73 trillion between 2020 and the first half of 2026.
The firm cautioned that the increase in financing volumes alone could not be used to determine whether agricultural production had improved, stressing the need to assess capital against productive capacity, food demand and trade.
Regius reported that Nigeria’s agricultural GDP reached N103.9 trillion in 2025, while the household food bill was estimated at N82 trillion during the same year.
The report, however, warned that the rise in nominal agricultural output should not automatically be interpreted as an equivalent increase in real production because inflation, commodity prices and foreign exchange movements can affect headline figures.
On agricultural trade, Regius reported that Nigeria recorded N5.07 trillion in agricultural exports and N4.76 trillion in agricultural imports in 2025.
The firm noted that increased export earnings could partly reflect higher global commodity prices rather than an increase in the physical volume of agricultural products exported.
Regius further reported that Nigeria’s continued reliance on agricultural imports showed significant scope for expanding domestic production and processing.
The report found that institutional capital remained concentrated largely among large agribusinesses with audited accounts, established assets, reliable cash flows and off-take agreements.
Regius added that primary production and upstream agricultural activities remained underrepresented in public-market financing, limiting access to institutional capital for parts of the agricultural value chain.
To address the financing gap, the firm recommended consortium-led special purpose vehicles, blended and catalytic capital, guarantees, milestone-based financing, longer-tenor debt, commercial paper for working capital and the aggregation of fragmented farmers.
“Nigeria’s agricultural financing challenge is not just about insufficient capital. It is also a structuring problem,” Regius concluded.
The firm said future growth would depend not only on the amount of capital available but also on where funds are deployed, their cost and tenor, and the ability of agricultural value chains to become bankable.
NatureNews notes that improving access to appropriately structured agricultural finance is important for strengthening domestic food production, reducing import dependence and supporting sustainable agricultural development in Nigeria.
