By Abbas Nazil
California could lose up to three-quarters of its beaches by 2100 as rising temperatures, coastal erosion, prolonged summers, worsening droughts and destructive wildfires threaten the state’s environment, economy and residents’ livelihoods, according to a new climate assessment released on Monday.
The state’s Fifth Climate Change Assessment warns that without significant intervention, climate change could reshape everyday life across the most populous state in the United States, affecting agriculture, tourism, public health, water supplies and coastal communities.
The report projects that California’s average temperatures could rise by approximately four degrees Fahrenheit by the middle of the century, while summer conditions could extend to an average of 135 days, compared with 90 days recorded between 1981 and 2010.
The assessment highlights growing concerns over the Sierra Nevada snowpack, a major source of water for the state’s reservoirs, which is expected to decline by about 40 per cent by mid-century.
Warmer conditions are likely to cause more precipitation to fall as rain rather than snow, resulting in faster runoff and reducing the natural storage of water needed to sustain communities and agriculture during dry periods.
By 2100, the snowpack could decline by as much as 60 per cent, increasing the risk of severe droughts and worsening water shortages.
The report also warns that rising sea levels and coastal flooding could threaten property worth approximately $78 billion by the end of the century, while erosion could cause up to 75 per cent of the state’s beaches to disappear seasonally or permanently without major intervention.
Wildfire smoke is another growing concern, with the assessment projecting that exposure could cause thousands of additional deaths annually as climate conditions become more favourable to destructive fires.
California has already experienced several indications of these changing conditions, including record-breaking temperatures and devastating wildfires.
The Los Angeles wildfires of 2025 were among the costliest disasters in United States history, highlighting the growing risks facing communities and infrastructure.
Agriculture, a major component of California’s economy, is also expected to face substantial challenges as warmer temperatures disrupt crop development and reduce water availability.
According to the assessment, fruit yields could decline by as much as 40 per cent in some areas because many crops require specific periods of cold weather to develop properly.
Water shortages could also force farmers to reduce irrigated farmland, with the San Joaquin Valley, one of the state’s major agricultural centres, potentially experiencing a reduction of up to 40 per cent in irrigated acreage.
Abby Edwards, senior deputy director of the Governor’s Office of Land Use and Climate Innovation, which produced the assessment, said the report was intended to help communities and decision-makers identify priorities for responding to climate change.
She emphasised that future outcomes would depend partly on the actions taken to address emerging risks, as the assessment examines different scenarios based on future greenhouse gas emissions and recommends adaptation measures.
California Governor Gavin Newsom reaffirmed the state’s commitment to climate action, saying his administration would continue working to protect communities and build a safer future.
The assessment comes amid disagreements between California and the administration of United States President Donald Trump over environmental regulations and climate policies.
Recent federal actions include ordering the restart of an oil pipeline off Santa Barbara, announcing funding for a proposed coal export terminal in Oakland and signalling possible restrictions on the California Coastal Commission, which is responsible for protecting the state’s 840-mile coastline.
California began producing climate assessments in 2006 under former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger to examine the specific threats posed by global warming.
The latest assessment, described as the most extensive to date, combines existing and newly commissioned research to evaluate climate risks and identify measures for strengthening resilience.
Its findings indicate that without effective intervention, climate change could significantly alter California’s natural landscapes, agricultural productivity, water security and established ways of life.
