By Abdullahi Lukman
About 19.2 million people in Afghanistan, representing 38 per cent of the population, are projected to face acute food insecurity during the November 2026 to April 2027 winter lean season, with malnutrition cases expected to rise to four million in 2027, the United Nations has warned.
The warning was issued by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) following the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, which projects a worsening humanitarian
crisis as winter approaches.
The projected number of people facing acute food insecurity represents an increase from 17.4 million during the corresponding period a year earlier.
Of those affected, approximately five million people are expected to experience emergency levels of hunger, classified as IPC Phase 4, double the number projected for April to September 2026.
The agencies warned that these populations urgently require food assistance and emergency agricultural support to prevent deaths and the collapse of livelihoods.
The worst conditions are projected in Badakhshan, Badghis, Daykundi, Ghor, Samangan, Sar-e-Pul and rural Ghazni.
The agencies also forecast that acute malnutrition cases would increase by nearly 10 per cent compared with 2026, reaching four million.
About one-quarter of these cases are expected to be severe and life-threatening, with women and children particularly vulnerable because prevention and treatment services are failing to keep pace with growing needs.
The worsening crisis has been attributed to multiple pressures, including the return of more than 1.2 million Afghans from Iran and Pakistan this year, disruptions to trade routes, rising prices of essential commodities and severe funding shortages affecting humanitarian operations.
Border closures and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and other critical trade routes have further increased pressure on household budgets, leaving vulnerable families struggling to afford basic food supplies.
Despite favourable rainfall that improved crop production and pasture conditions in 2026, many households remain unable to access nutritious food because of persistent unemployment and low purchasing power.
The FAO and WFP noted that poorer farmers also face high fertiliser and agricultural input costs, alongside low crop prices, which could force them to reduce planting or use fewer inputs.
Although an anticipated El Niño season could bring additional rainfall and support future harvests, it may also increase the risk of flooding, erosion, crop damage and plant and animal diseases.
Richard Trenchard, FAO Representative in Afghanistan, said the year’s improved harvest demonstrated the potential of Afghan farmers but warned that food availability alone could not guarantee access to nutritious meals for families without reliable incomes.
He called for increased investment in targeted food assistance, emergency agricultural support, local agribusinesses and food processing to help farmers access markets, create jobs and strengthen household resilience.
John Aylieff, WFP Country Director in Afghanistan, said hunger and malnutrition were worsening as humanitarian needs increased and funding declined.
He warned that the opportunity to prevent further deterioration was narrowing, urging donors to provide urgent assistance to help vulnerable families survive the winter.
The two agencies stressed that support must reach affected communities before severe winter conditions restrict access and farmers miss critical planting periods, calling for an urgent expansion of food assistance, agricultural interventions and malnutrition prevention and treatment services.
