By Abbas Nazil
New climate projections indicate that nearly 20 percent of the areas currently suitable for cocoa cultivation in Colombia could lose the environmental conditions needed for production by 2050, raising concerns about the future of one of the country’s important agricultural sectors.
Researchers warn that rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns may significantly affect cocoa-growing regions, particularly in lowland areas of the Caribbean region and northeastern parts of the country.
The findings come from a scientific study conducted by the Alliance of Bioversity International and the International Center for Tropical Agriculture in collaboration with AGROSAVIA and Fedecacao.
The research combined future climate projections with data on current cocoa production zones and the distribution of wild cocoa species to estimate how growing conditions could change over the next 25 years.
According to the projections, the most severe losses in suitable cocoa-growing land are expected in low-lying departments including Atlántico, Bolívar, Cesar, Córdoba, Sucre and Antioquia, as well as the northeastern departments of Arauca, Casanare, Meta and Vichada.
Scientists say climate change could lead to higher crop stress, reduced yields and increased uncertainty for thousands of farming families who depend on cocoa cultivation for their livelihoods.
Recent climate-related events have already shown how vulnerable agricultural systems can be to changing weather patterns.
Researchers pointed to recent cold waves and flooding in northern Colombia, which damaged lowland areas in the Caribbean region and parts of the Andean zones, as evidence that climate variability is already affecting agricultural production.
Despite the projected losses in some regions, the study also found that the overall outlook for cocoa production in Colombia is not entirely negative.
Many of the areas where cocoa is currently produced, particularly in the foothills of the Andes, are expected to retain favourable climate conditions for cultivation in the coming decades.
In addition, the study predicts a potential expansion of about three percent in suitable cocoa-growing areas at higher elevations, suggesting that cocoa farming could gradually shift toward cooler mountainous regions.
This potential geographical redistribution means that cocoa cultivation in Colombia is unlikely to disappear entirely but may change location as farmers adapt to new environmental conditions.
One of the most important findings of the study is the role that wild cocoa species could play in helping farmers adapt to climate change.
Wild cocoa plants have evolved over thousands of years in diverse and sometimes extreme environments, making them a valuable source of genetic material for developing more resilient cocoa varieties.
Scientists say populations of wild cocoa growing in particularly hot, dry or wet regions may contain genes that could help breeders create new varieties capable of withstanding future climate stresses.
Protecting the natural forests where these wild cocoa relatives grow is therefore considered essential for maintaining the genetic diversity needed to strengthen cocoa crops against climate change.
The research also highlights agroforestry systems as another important strategy for climate adaptation in cocoa production.
Agroforestry involves growing cocoa under the shade of other trees, which helps regulate temperature, conserve soil moisture and create more stable growing conditions.
In regions expected to face longer drought periods, supplemental irrigation and improved water management may also help stabilize production levels.
Scientists emphasise that these strategies should be supported by long-term land-use planning and reliable climate information to help farmers and policymakers make informed decisions.
Institutions such as Ministerio de Agricultura de Colombia and other agricultural agencies could use these projections to design targeted adaptation measures for different regions of the country.
The findings of the research have been published in the scientific journal Regional Environmental Change and will also be integrated into an online platform designed to guide farmers in choosing the best climate adaptation strategies for cocoa cultivation.
Researchers say combining improved crop varieties, sustainable farming systems and science-based planning will be essential to ensure that Colombia’s cocoa sector remains productive and resilient in the face of a changing climate.
