By Abbas Nazil
World leaders and climate negotiators have begun the 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31) in Antalya, Türkiye, amid fresh scientific warnings that 2026 could become the hottest year ever recorded, intensifying calls for urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, strengthen climate adaptation and increase financial support for vulnerable countries.
Scientists at Berkeley Earth, an independent United States-based research organisation, have expressed 95 per cent confidence that global temperatures in 2026 will surpass the previous record established in 2024, citing the combined influence of human-induced climate change and the El Niño weather phenomenon.
The warning comes as representatives from countries across the world gather for two weeks of negotiations aimed at addressing the escalating impacts of global warming and accelerating the implementation of existing climate commitments.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), in its latest assessment released on Monday, also projected that 2026 would rank among the four warmest years since modern records began, while warning that an unusually strong El Niño could sustain elevated global temperatures into 2027.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo described the emerging temperature conditions as unprecedented, warning that the additional heat being released from increasingly warmer oceans could intensify the consequences of global warming.
According to scientists, approximately 90 per cent of the additional heat trapped by greenhouse gas emissions has been absorbed by the oceans, with El Niño contributing to higher atmospheric temperatures by releasing some of the accumulated ocean heat.
The latest warning places additional pressure on COP31 negotiations, particularly as countries face increasing difficulties balancing emissions reduction commitments with the urgent need to prepare communities, infrastructure and economies for worsening climate-related disasters.
Recent months have witnessed extensive wildfires across parts of Europe and other regions, while extreme heat, droughts and flooding risks continue to threaten livelihoods, ecosystems and economic activities.
Scientists have attributed the increasing frequency and intensity of these events to rising global temperatures, largely driven by carbon dioxide emissions from the continued burning of fossil fuels.
The WMO has also warned that the world remains on course for approximately 2.8 degrees Celsius of warming above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, significantly exceeding the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold established under the Paris Agreement.
Against this background, COP31 is expected to focus on translating previous climate agreements into practical action, including expanding renewable energy, strengthening adaptation measures, improving electrification and addressing growing waste generation.
United Nations climate chief Simon Stiell is expected to warn participating governments that no single climate conference can independently resolve the widening gap between scientific warnings and the realities confronting communities.
However, he is expected to emphasise that the urgency of the climate crisis must encourage countries to accelerate implementation of existing commitments rather than allow disagreements to delay progress.
Renewable energy development is expected to feature prominently in the discussions, particularly following growing evidence of its economic benefits and contribution to reducing dependence on fossil fuels.
The International Energy Agency has projected that renewable energy capacity growth over the next six years will be 57 per cent higher than during the preceding period, reflecting increasing investments in solar, wind and other clean energy technologies.
China remains the largest contributor to the global expansion of renewable electricity capacity, although its share of future growth is expected to decline as other developing countries increase investments in clean energy.
The Turkish government has indicated that it wants COP31 discussions to establish a new global ambition for electrification, encouraging countries to transition their energy systems towards electricity while reducing waste generation.
However, disagreements are expected over the energy sources that should support electrification, with the European Union insisting that any agreement must prioritise clean energy rather than allow countries to rely on natural gas as an alternative to coal.
Saudi Arabia and Russia have previously supported the continued use of gas as a transitional energy source, highlighting the divisions that have complicated international negotiations over fossil fuel dependence.
Climate finance is another major issue expected to shape discussions, particularly the ability of developing countries to access adequate resources for climate adaptation, disaster preparedness and resilience-building.
Wealthier nations had previously committed to increasing financial support for developing countries, with an agreed ambition to raise adaptation finance to at least $85 billion annually by 2035.
However, available figures for 2024 indicate that countries have achieved only about one-third of the target, raising concerns about the widening funding gap as climate-related damages increase.
The United Nations has warned that the financial consequences of climate change are already substantial and that developing countries may require considerably more resources to respond effectively to escalating environmental threats.
The negotiations are also expected to address the environmental implications of artificial intelligence, particularly the increasing demand for electricity and water resources associated with expanding data centres and digital infrastructure.
With global temperatures continuing to rise and climate-related disasters becoming increasingly disruptive, COP31 presents another opportunity for governments to strengthen international cooperation, mobilise climate finance and accelerate the transition towards low-carbon and climate-resilient development.
