By Abbas Nazil
The United States must accelerate and strengthen its climate assessments as growing climate risks threaten communities, economies and ecosystems, a new commentary by 175 researchers has warned.
The commentary, co-authored by five Cornell University scholars and published September 22 in “Earth’s Future” and the “Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society”, says current assessments are not keeping pace with rapidly evolving climate threats and the need for practical, evidence-based responses.
It is the first paper in the US Climate Collection: Informing Assessment of Risks and Solutions, a joint initiative of the American Geophysical Union and the American Meteorological Society to consolidate scientific research to inform future national, regional and local climate assessments.
According to the researchers, future assessments must go beyond tracking temperature rise to examine how greenhouse gas emissions intensify hazards, how multiple extreme events trigger cascading risks, and how social and economic systems shape vulnerability.
The authors also called for integrated evaluation of mitigation, adaptation, disaster management and resilience planning as interconnected components of climate action.
Among the Cornell contributors, Steven Mana‘oakamai Johnson, assistant professor of natural resources and the environment, led input on ocean systems, covering fisheries, coastal infrastructure and emerging ocean industries. He stressed the need to incorporate community perspectives, Indigenous knowledge and socio-economic realities to ensure decisions reflect local needs and cultural values.
Johnson noted that ocean-dependent communities are already facing rapid environmental change while making critical decisions about livelihoods, infrastructure and conservation.
Flavio Lehner and Natalie Mahowald contributed to the physical systems section, urging stronger testing of climate models against expanding observational records to improve projections of heatwaves, precipitation shifts and carbon fluxes.
They said observed changes around 1.5 degrees Celsius of global warming offer vital clues for identifying the most reliable models for future forecasting.
Linda Shi, who contributed to the adaptation section, said while adaptation efforts in the US have grown rapidly, they remain fragmented and sector-specific, often failing to address compounding and future threats.
She called for research that assesses the effectiveness and trade-offs of adaptation policies and links monitoring with policy experimentation to improve governance.
Ariel Ortiz Bobea, associate professor of applied economics and management, focused on economic impacts, noting that while progress has been made in documenting costs, key questions remain about how quickly economies recover from climate shocks.
He said the speed and completeness of recovery could significantly alter estimates of the total economic cost of climate change.
Overall, the commentary sets research priorities across environmental systems, economic sectors and regions, warning that compounding extremes are straining infrastructure, institutions and policies.
The authors argued that assessments must translate complex science into actionable information for households, businesses and governments.
The last US National Climate Assessment was published in 2023, but with scientific knowledge advancing and states, cities and businesses developing their own assessments, the researchers said faster, more connected and decision-relevant assessments are urgently needed.
