By Abdullahi Lukman
Uncontrolled global warming could reduce global per capita income by nearly 23 percent by the end of the century, with even higher losses expected in hotter and lower-income countries, according to a new study from the climaTRACES Lab at the University of Cambridge.
Authored by researchers Kamiar Mohaddes and Mehdi Raissi, the study warns that no country—regardless of wealth or climate—is immune from the economic consequences of rising global temperatures.
Rich nations like Canada and the U.S. could face income losses of up to 31 percent and 28 percent respectively, while warmer and poorer countries may suffer economic damages 30 percent to 60 percent higher than the global average.
In contrast, the study finds that meeting the climate targets of the Paris Agreement could boost global per capita income by 0.25 percent, underscoring the economic benefits of emissions reductions.
“Climate change reduces income in all countries, hot and cold, rich and poor alike,” the researchers wrote, adding that the impact will be felt across various sectors beyond agriculture, including transport, manufacturing, and retail.
The analysis also estimates that warming of 1.2°C from 1960 to 2014 has already caused global income losses of around 2 percent, or approximately $1.6 trillion.
Complementing these findings, the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS)—a coalition of 143 central banks—projects that climate disasters could slow global economic growth by up to 3 percent within five years.
Under current policies, NGFS forecasts long-term global GDP losses of up to 30 percent by 2100, with worst-case scenarios reaching as high as 50 percent.
The study adds to growing evidence that urgent climate action is not just an environmental imperative, but also essential for global economic stability.
