By Abbas Nazil
China’s carbon emissions may have already peaked, climate experts say, driven by an unprecedented surge in renewable energy production that is reshaping the country’s energy landscape and could significantly impact global climate goals and coal markets.
According to a new report by the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), China’s carbon dioxide emissions dropped 1.6 percent in the year leading to May 2025, marking a rare and historic decline not tied to economic downturns.
The drop is attributed to a massive build-out of renewable energy infrastructure, particularly solar and wind power, which is beginning to replace coal in China’s power mix.
Belinda Schäpe, a China policy analyst at CREA, called the trend “historic” and noted that the clean energy shift has been strong enough to cut emissions despite economic growth.
She stated that China’s renewable installations now exceed those of the rest of the world combined, adding that in May 2025 alone, the country added 90 gigawatts of solar capacity—equivalent to 100 solar panels every second.
For the first time, the total installed capacity of solar and wind in China now surpasses the combined capacity of all fossil fuel sources, including coal, gas, and oil.
Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute, said that while China’s emissions have fluctuated over recent decades, they are now stabilising or even declining, entering a new era of low-carbon growth.
He noted that this transition aligns with China’s long-term economic and environmental interests, and said the nation is now at a potential turning point that could see emissions steadily decrease.
Despite the growth in renewables, China continues to approve and build coal-fired power plants, with around two new projects approved weekly during 2022 and 2023.
However, Schäpe said these plants are consuming less coal, with June 2025 recording a 25 percent year-on-year drop in coal imports.
Power demand rose sharply in June, but solar and wind sources met nearly 89% of the increased demand.
As a result, coal’s share of China’s electricity generation has fallen to just over 50 percent—its lowest since 2016.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has pledged to phase down coal consumption between 2026 and 2030.
This shift is already impacting coal-exporting countries such as Australia, which sends around 30 percent of its thermal coal exports to China.
Experts say Australia must accelerate economic transition plans in coal-reliant regions or face long-term economic risks.
Meanwhile, the United States under President Trump is moving in the opposite direction, rolling back clean energy subsidies and increasing coal support.
Li warned that political divergence between the US and China could undermine global cooperation on climate, but said China will likely stick to its green agenda regardless.
He stressed that China sees clean energy not just as a climate solution, but as a strategic industry for future growth and pollution control.
China is expected to release updated carbon targets later this year under the Paris Agreement, a move that will reveal how far the country is willing to lead in global climate efforts.
