By Rasheeda Hamidu
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned that the world is likely to experience another record-breaking hot year before 2030 as rising greenhouse gas emissions continue to drive global warming and intensify climate risks.
The warning was contained in the WMO’s Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2026–2035, produced by the United Kingdom Met Office in collaboration with 13 international climate prediction centres, which assessed temperature trends and climate conditions expected over the next five years.
Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Simon Stiell, said the findings underscored the growing consequences of climate change, describing the recent European heatwave as “a brutal reminder of the spiralling impacts of the climate crisis, both human and economic”.
NatureNews notes that Africa is among the regions most vulnerable to rising temperatures, with climate change already contributing to heat stress, food insecurity, droughts and extreme weather events across the continent.
According to the WMO report, there is an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year ever recorded globally.
The report also indicated a 75% probability that average global temperatures over the 2026–2030 period will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, although this does not mean the long-term Paris Agreement threshold has been permanently breached.
The WMO further reported that the likelihood of any single year exceeding 2°C above pre-industrial levels remains below 1%, suggesting that stronger climate action could still help avoid more severe warming outcomes.
The organisation attributed part of the projected temperature rise to the likely development of an El Niño event later in 2026, which typically raises global temperatures by releasing heat stored in the Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere.
Lead author of the report, Dr Leon Hermanson, explained that the expected El Niño conditions increase the possibility that 2027 could become the next record-breaking year for global temperatures.
The report also projected that Arctic winters over the next five years will be about 2.8°C warmer than recent averages, reinforcing concerns about the rapid pace of warming in polar regions.
According to the WMO, northern Europe, the Sahel, Alaska and Siberia are likely to experience wetter-than-average conditions between May and September in the coming years, while the Amazon region is expected to become drier.
NatureNews tracks global climate trends, temperature records and extreme weather patterns as part of its coverage of environmental resilience, climate adaptation and sustainable development across Africa and the wider world.
