By Abbas Nazil
The United Nations and global climate agencies have warned that Earth is likely to experience a rapid rise in extreme weather events over the next five years, driven by a combination of human-caused global warming and a likely strong El Niño event.
According to new projections from the World Meteorological Organisation and the United Kingdom’s Met Office, there is a 75 percent chance that average global temperatures between 2026 and 2030 will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, a key threshold set under the Paris Agreement.
The report also indicates a 91 percent probability that at least one year within the next five will surpass the 1.5°C mark, and an 86 percent chance that a new record for the hottest year on record will be broken, surpassing the record set in 2024.
Climate scientists say that global temperatures during this period are expected to range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels, indicating a sustained period of unusually high global heat.
The United Nations warned that these conditions could trigger a “whole range of extreme weather events,” including heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, and floods, with significant risks to human health, food systems and ecosystems.
Experts also highlighted that ecosystems such as coral reefs, glaciers and rainforest regions are particularly vulnerable to even small increases in global temperatures above the 1.5°C threshold.
Climate scientist Friederike Otto from Imperial College London warned that extended periods above this threshold would likely bring unprecedented extreme weather conditions that exceed past historical experience, stressing that cities are not adequately prepared.
She noted that climate change is already intensifying heatwaves, making them hotter, longer and more frequent across many regions of the world.
The forecasted warming is expected to be amplified by a strong El Niño pattern, a natural climate phenomenon that temporarily raises global temperatures by warming parts of the Pacific Ocean.
The World Meteorological Organisation said there is a strong likelihood that El Niño conditions could persist until 2028, further increasing global temperature records and intensifying climate extremes.
Scientists explained that while El Niño can raise global temperatures by around 0.1°C to 0.2°C, the long-term rise caused by greenhouse gas emissions remains the dominant driver of climate change.
The report warned that climate change is a persistent process that continues to worsen as long as fossil fuel emissions remain high, unlike El Niño which is temporary and cyclical.
The projections are based on hundreds of simulations using multiple global climate models, all of which indicate accelerated warming trends, particularly in sensitive regions such as the Arctic.
The Arctic is expected to warm about 3.5 times faster than the global average, with winter temperatures projected to rise significantly above recent historical norms, contributing to rapid ice loss and environmental instability.
Scientists also warned of increasing risks in other critical regions, including the Amazon, where warmer and drier conditions could intensify wildfires and weaken its role as a major carbon sink.
In contrast, parts of Africa’s Sahel region are expected to experience heavier rainfall, raising the risk of flooding and associated humanitarian impacts.
Experts say the combined effects of global warming and natural climate variability could lead to record-breaking temperatures and severe weather disruptions worldwide within the next five years.
The United Nations urged governments to accelerate climate action, reduce reliance on fossil fuels, and strengthen adaptation strategies to protect populations from escalating climate risks.
