By Abdullahi Lukman
A new Australian-led study, utilizing advanced climate modeling, projects a 20 percent slowdown of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current by 2050 in a high-emissions scenario.
This slowdown, linked to increased meltwater from Antarctic ice sheets, is expected to further accelerate ice melting and contribute to rising sea levels, posing significant global climate risks.
The research, published in Environmental Research Letters, highlights the critical role of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in regulating the climate system.
This current, significantly stronger than the Gulf Stream, influences heat and carbon dioxide uptake and prevents warmer waters from reaching Antarctica.
The study, conducted using Australia’s Gadi supercomputer, reveals a direct correlation between meltwater and current deceleration.
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Scientists warn that this slowdown could trigger a “vicious cycle,” where warmer waters reaching Antarctica further accelerate ice melt, weakening the current further.
This disruption could also lead to increased climate variability, accelerated global warming, and disruptions to marine ecosystems, including the potential spread of invasive species.
The introduction of cold, fresh meltwater into the ocean alters its density, a key driver of the current’s movement. Researchers describe the projected changes as a “substantial reconfiguration of Southern Ocean dynamics” with “far-reaching impacts.”
Experts emphasize the urgency of mitigating global warming through reduced carbon emissions to avert the projected slowdown and its associated consequences.
They also highlight the importance of understanding ocean dynamics, given that oceans store over 90% of Earth’s excess heat, influencing global climate and weather patterns.
The study comes amid observed dramatic changes in the Antarctic region, including accelerating ice melt and record-low sea ice extents.
Climate scientists stress the need for improved understanding of ocean heat and carbon uptake to better project and adapt to future climate scenarios.
