By Abdullahi Lukman
Exeter University researchers advocate for an “investment portfolio approach” to worldwide tree-planting initiatives, emphasizing diversification of species and locations to safeguard against uncertain future climate and economic conditions.
This strategy aims to prevent the misplacement of tree species, which could undermine ambitious national commitments to carbon sequestration.
The recommendation comes as countries, including the UK and the US, have pledged to plant billions of trees to combat climate change.
However, the study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, highlights the critical need for immediate decisions on tree species and planting locations, despite the inherent uncertainties of future climate and economic landscapes.
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Environmental economists warn that large-scale conversion of farmland to forests presents significant risks, including potential impacts on food security.
They argue that a portfolio approach, similar to financial investment strategies, can balance climate and economic risks, ensuring cost-effective carbon removal.
Frankie Cho, the study’s lead author, explained that the unpredictability of global climate action necessitates a diversified approach.
Different tree species perform optimally under varying climate scenarios, and the economic costs of planting in specific locations fluctuate.
By diversifying, countries can mitigate the risk of “betting on the wrong future,” ensuring resilient tree-planting decisions.
The study modeled this approach using the UK, demonstrating the interdependence of climate and economic risks and the benefits of a combined-uncertainty planting portfolio.
