By Abdullahi Lukman
Solar power is expected to surpass coal as China’s largest source of installed electricity capacity for the first time in 2026, marking a major milestone in the country’s energy transition, according to the China
Electricity Council.
Despite this shift, environmental group 350.org has warned that China’s continued expansion of coal-fired power plants could undermine the gains made by renewable energy, citing record levels of new coal project proposals and approvals.
Projections show that by the end of 2026, non-fossil energy sources—mainly solar and wind—will account for 63 per cent of China’s total power capacity, while coal’s share is expected to fall to 31 per cent. China’s installed solar capacity is projected to exceed coal capacity for the first time within this period.
However, data from Global Energy Monitor indicate that developers proposed 161 gigawatts of new coal-fired power capacity in 2025 alone. In total, about 291 gigawatts of coal capacity remain in China’s pipeline, either already permitted or under construction.
Commenting on the trend, Andreas Sieber, Head of Political Strategy at 350.org, described the moment as historic, noting that solar’s rise demonstrates that clean energy has become more competitive in terms of cost, scale and air quality.
He warned, however, that continued coal expansion risks creating stranded assets, increasing system costs and complicating China’s energy transition.
350.org argues that the ongoing coal build-out contradicts China’s clean-energy progress and largely serves an industry struggling to remain relevant as renewable energy continues to gain economic dominance.
