By Yemi Olakitan
An multinational team of scientists has been able to map out the nine boundary processes that define a safe operating environment for humans, providing for the first time a thorough overview of planetary resilience.
From global warming to the biosphere and deforestation, from pollutants and plastic to nitrogen cycles and freshwater, cutting-edge research revealed in the journal Science that demonstrates that six of nine planetary boundaries are being violated while pressure in all those boundary processes is rising.
This update on planetary boundaries released on 17th of September, 2023 plainly shows a patient who is ill because the globe is under more pressure and important boundaries are being crossed.
According to co-author Johan Rockström, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), “We don’t know how long we can keep crossing these key boundaries before accumulating pressures result in irreversible change and harm.”
Since the framework’s introduction in 2009, the second major planetary boundaries update is the first to offer a thorough examination of all nine processes and systems that affect the planet’s resilience and stability. Even while a boundary violation may not equate to significant changes occurring over night, it does represent a crucial threshold for rising risk.
The University of Copenhagen’s Katherine Richardson, the study’s lead author, elaborates, saying: “We can think of Earth as a human body, and the planetary borders as blood pressure. Although a blood pressure reading of above 120/80 does not guarantee a heart attack, it does increase the risk, hence we attempt to lower blood pressure. While the ozone depletion boundary, for instance, had not yet been breached globally, significant regional violations were on the horizon. Despite the fact that it is still exceeding over Antarctica today, it is currently gradually rebounding because of international actions made possible by the Montreal Protocol.
All novel chemical substances produced by humans, such as microplastics, insecticides, and nuclear waste, are included in the accumulation of these substances. In addition, for the first time, there is now scientific evidence to define the limit of atmospheric aerosol loading, which has not yet been crossed despite local violations, such as those in South Asia.
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The freshwater boundary currently handles both blue water (rivers, lakes, etc.) and green water (held in soil and plants in farms, forests, etc.) – both limits are violated.
Another first was the introduction of a control variable for biosphere integrity, which revealed evidence for another limit that had really been breached since the late 19th century, when world agriculture and forestry experienced significant expansions. The researchers emphasise that planetary resilience goes far beyond climate change.
“The integrity of the ecosystem is the second pillar of stability for our world, after climate change. We are currently destabilising this pillar by removing too much biomass, killing too much habitat, clearing too much land of trees, etc., same to how we are doing with the climate. Our research demonstrates the need to simultaneously reduce global warming while preserving a healthy ecosystem for future generations, emphasises co-author Wolfgang Lucht, head of PIK’s department of Earth System Analysis.
The investigation has been significantly aided by the implementation of complex computer simulations and models at PIK. For instance, the connections between the climate and biosphere were investigated using the Potsdam Earth System Model (POEM).
For several hundred years, simulations were run using POEM and its biosphere model LPJmL, taking into account both the quick-reacting processes and the much slower Earth system processes that ultimately define how the environment will evolve as a result of the actions we take today.
According to PIK Director Johan Rockström, “Science and the general public are very concerned about the increasing signs of declining planetary resilience, manifested by the transgression of planetary boundaries, which brings us closer to tipping points and closes the window to have any chance of holding the 1.5°C planetary climate boundary.”
The fact that we now have a scientifically quantifiable safe space for humankind on Earth, which offers a roadmap for action and the first complete image of our planet’s capacity to withstand stress, is a real breakthrough.
The availability of this knowledge represents a critical first step towards more organised efforts to safeguard, restore, and rebuild planetary resilience, the author says.
