Why Nigeria still faces devastating floods despite NiMET, NIHSA’s predictions – NatureNews Investigations
Despite numerous predictions and early warnings by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMET) in 2024, floods continue to devastate communities across the country, exposing gaps in preparedness and infrastructure.
Since January, NiMET has issued timely forecasts of impending floods, highlighting areas at risk and offering guidance to mitigate damage.
However, many regions still experienced widespread destruction as a result of flooding, leaving citizens and experts questioning why the country remains vulnerable.
NiMET, known for its regular weather predictions, provided critical early warnings regarding the likelihood of floods in various parts of Nigeria.
As early as February, the agency cautioned about the risk of heavy rainfall and potential flash floods later in the year.
In April, the warnings became more focused, with NiMET predicting above-average rainfall in the South, particularly in Lagos, Delta, and Rivers States.
By mid-year, as rainfall intensified, NiMET raised alarms about potential flooding in flood-prone areas such as the Niger and Benue river basins, urging both residents and local authorities to take preventive action.
By August, the agency had issued multiple warnings about riverbank overflows and urban flooding in densely populated areas, including Abuja, Lokoja, and Makurdi.
Despite these early warnings, Nigeria continues to struggle with flood management, and several reasons explain the country’s vulnerability.
Part of the problem has been the failure of governments both at the state and federal levels to take concrete steps to implement warnings by the Meteorological Agency and as well the annual Flooding Outlook Warning by the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA).
For instance, prior to the 2012 flooding, NIMET’’s Director General, Dr Anthony Anuforo, had in March warned about imminent heavy rainfall and the attendant flooding in most parts of the country. NIMET predicted irregular flooding and erosion in some parts of the country, especially the coastal zone and river catchment areas.
The Agency had urged the relevant emergency agencies, state governments and the Federal Government to create awareness in order to reduce damages and loss of lives and property.
Anuforom stated that for the hydrological and water resources sector , this implies adequate water and stream-flows which may affect the dam storage for municipal water supply, hydro-power generation and irrigation.
Hence, development and regular maintenance of dams for dry season irrigation and water supply should be accorded high priority.
NIMET again warned Nigerians to clear their drains because of imminent heavy rainstorms that may lead to serious flooding between August and October. Over two million people were reportedly displaced during the flood, with several deaths, both reported and unreported.
In 2016, the agency in a statement entitled, “Rainfall Situation and Prospects of Flooding in August to October 2016”, warned that floods should be expected in some areas of the country because the soil in these locations are no longer able to absorb more rainwater in the coming weeks which coincide with the peak of the rainy season.
NiMet stated that working in conjunction with the Nigerian Hydrological Services Agency, it observed that soil moisture has either reached saturation, or near saturation levels due to cumulative high intensity rainfall in some parts of the country in June and July. The affected States included Akwa Ibom, Bauchi, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Kaduna, Kwara, Nasarawa, Yobe and Zamfara.
The agency then advised governments, communities and individuals in these vulnerable parts of the country to take proactive actions, such as clearing water channels and drainage, and also avoiding activities that block the free flow of flood waters. It also pointed out that closer attention should be paid to NiMet’s daily weather forecasts and alerts, while further admonishing that relevant agencies should perfect their emergency evacuation plans and activate them as soon as necessary.
In 2022, NiMET warned of flood which will primarily be caused by excess. It said the disaster is been heightened by people who build on flood plains and the rise in water levels in the River Niger and Benue.
Nigeria lost $4.6bn to 2022 flooding, according to NiMET DG, at the time, Prof. Mansur Matazu. Also NEMA reported that 64 percent of households were affected by the floods in 2022, with impacts ranging from livelihood, housing, food sources and access to basic services, and schools
In 2023, NiMET forecasts warned of massive variation in the onset of rainfall in most parts of the country and that as early as March, the coastal zone of the South-south states of Bayelsa, Rivers, and Akwa Ibom will observe unpleasant rainfall changes.
The Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA) also predicted in its 2023 Annual Flood Outlook (AFO) that 178 Local Government Areas (LGA’s) in 32 States of the federation and the FCT fall within the Highly Probable Flood Risks Areas.
They include: Adamawa, Abia, Akwa- Ibom, Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Cross-River, Delta, Ebonyi, Ekiti, Edo, Gombe, Imo, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Rivers, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe, as well as Zamfara and the FCT.“While 224 LGAs in 35 States of the Federation including FCT fall within the moderately probable flood Risks.
Related Posts
In May 2024, NiMET predicted what it called ‘Monster Floods” in about 148 communities in 31 states of the federation. NiMET advised governments of the states to be affected to take necessary steps to mitigate the impact of the looming disaster.
Prof. Joseph Utsev, the Minister of Water Resources and Sanitation, cautioned that 148 Local Government Areas (LGAs) across 31 states are among the highly probable flood risk areas for 2024.
The identified states were: Adamawa, Akwa-Ibom, Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Borno, Cross-River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Imo, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi and Kogi.
Others included: Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Plateau, Rivers, Sokoto, Taraba, and Yobe.
Investigations by NatureNews revealed that it is not as if Nigerian Government stands idle while floods ravage its cities and communities.
Alongside state government efforts, the Federal Government usually allocates funds for each state every month to address various ecological challenges across the country.
This allocation, popularly referred to as Ecological Fund, is derived from 2.3% of the Federation Account. This funds are distributed to states based on the severity of their environmental challenges.
The ecological fund is crucial part of Nigeria’s federal revenue allocation, specifically designated to address various environmental challenges nationwide, including erosion, desertification, flooding, oil spills, and drought.
However, recent devastating flooding in some parts of the country particularly in Borno State in which over 30 people have been declared dead by the authority, exposed discrepancies between the amount allocated to states and the actual expenditure on environmental protection projects embarked on between January and June, 2024.
While some states shows positive environmental projects the Ecological Fund was expended on, majority of the states have spend less than the amount they have got to embark on ecological projects or projects of environmental importance.
For example, the 36 states received N39.62 billion as ecological fund allocations from June 2023 to June 2024. Below are what some of the states received as Ecological Fund and Environmental Expenditure from the federal purse from January to June 2024 and what was spent on either ecological or environmental projects within the time frame.
State Ecological fund received Amount spent
Anambra N654m N56m
Adamawa N653m N56m
Bauchi N780m N384m
Benue N369m N50m
Borno N817m N770m
Enugu N661m N100m
Kebbi N347m N154m
Ebonyi N588m N275m
Zamfara N654m N320m
Cross River N330m N314m
Jigawa N735m N651m
Sokoto N724M N495m
All the costs spent on environmental protection as listed above in the same period of time sourced from Allocation Committee published by NBS includes the costs of staff salaries and related overheads.
It is noted that only few states did fairly well with the Ecological Fund they received from the Federal Government but majority cannot account for the ecological fund they haave received from the federal authority in the last one year.
Despite what the Federal Government disbursed each month to the states to take care of ecological and environmental challenges, the impact of flooding and windstorm experienced in some parts of the country was devastating.
