A study published by Christian Aid highlights the devastating economic impact climate change will inflict on Commonwealth countries.
Released just before the coronation of long time environment campaigner King Charles III, the new report lays out the grim economic future facing Commonwealth countries and underlining the deep climate inequality within the bloc.
The study, titled: ‘The climate cost to the Commonwealth’, was led by Marina Andrijevic, an economist at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Vienna. By 2050 and 2100 the economies of these countries are still expected to be higher than they are today.
This study highlights the amount of damage caused to their GDP by climate change, compared to a scenario where climate change didn’t take place.
Estimates based on peer-reviewed methodology by Burke et al show that on current climate policies, where global temperature rise reaches around 2.7C by the end of the century, Commonwealth countries can expect to suffer an average GDP hit of -19% by 2050 and of -63% by 2100.
Even if countries keep global temperature rise to 1.5C as set out in the Paris Agreement, Commonwealth nations face a mean GDP reduction of -13% by 2050 and -32% by 2100.
According to Christian Aid, this underlines the need to get the new Loss and Damage Fund up and running urgently with rich countries providing their fair share of finance, based on the polluter pays principle, even if countries succeed in keeping global heating under 1.5C.
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The country facing the worst projected GDP hit is Nigeria, which last year was struck by flooding in West Africa which killed more than 600 people and displaced 1.3 million.
Christian Aid’s study shows that under current climate policies Nigeria faces a GDP reduction of -26% by 2050 and -75% by 2100 compared to if there was no climate change. Even in a 1.5C scenario, Nigeria can expect a GDP blow of -18% by 2050 and -43% by 2100.
Per person the UK emits 64 times more carbon than fellow Commonwealth nation Malawi. Canada emits more than 179 times more and Australia, 188 times.
In fact, the per capita emissions of the Commonwealth’s richest four countries (UK, Australia, Canada and New Zealand), is 41.1 tons of C02, which is 23 times larger than the 10 least emitting per capita Commonwealth countries combined (1.78 tons).
The study estimates the economic damage caused by climate change on GDP for 40 of the 56 Commonwealth countries where data is available.
The methodology used here doesn’t factor in adaptation measures, so greater investment in adaptation could potentially alleviate some of the damage. The derisory amounts that richer governments are committing to adaptation support for the poorest is one of the issues that climate campaigners are demanding is addressed at COP28 in Dubai.
The countries most affected are also the ones with very low capacities to adapt, as outlined the University of Notre Dame index of vulnerability and adaptative capacity so it is unreasonable to expect that they will be able to reduce these damages very substantially.
