By Abbas Nazil
China’s controversial plan to build a super dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo River in Tibet has sparked concerns in India over potential water shortages and increased flood risks.
However, a new joint study by Hohai University and China’s Ministry of Water Resources suggests that the effects of the project may actually mitigate those fears.
Contrary to the alarm raised by Indian officials, the research indicates that the dam could help stabilize river flow—raising water levels during dry seasons and reducing flooding during high-risk periods.
The Yarlung Tsangpo, which flows from the southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau into India as the Brahmaputra, has long been viewed as a vital water source with immense hydroelectric potential.
China’s proposed super dam on the river, expected to produce three times the electricity output of the massive Three Gorges Dam, is part of the West-East Power Transfer strategy to boost clean energy.
Yet, its approval in December last year immediately triggered geopolitical tension, with Indian commentators calling it a “water bomb.”
The new study analyzed hydrological data downstream from two already operational dams upstream—the Zangmu and Jiacha—since their commissioning in 2014.
Findings show a significant increase in water availability during traditionally dry months, with February flows up by more than 50%.
Across the dry season, water levels consistently rose, countering India’s fears of manipulated droughts.
Meanwhile, monsoon flood intensity slightly decreased. In August, historically the peak of flood danger, flow levels dropped by around 2%, indicating better flood control than anticipated.
The team, led by Dr. Zhang Jianyun—China’s dam safety chief and director of climate change research at the Ministry of Water Resources—stressed that Tibet’s hydropower boom came only recently due to the region’s harsh climate, economic hurdles, and geopolitical sensitivities.
The researchers described the Yarlung Tsangpo basin as an ideal natural lab for studying the combined effects of human engineering and climate change on alpine river systems.
Although the dams appear to regulate water flow effectively, they also introduce complex ecological changes.
The study warns that joint reservoir operations have intensified hydrothermal lag—where cold months get colder and warm months warmer—disrupting aquatic life cycles.
This phenomenon is being amplified by climate change, particularly glacial melt between June and October, as regional temperatures rise by an estimated 0.05°C per year.
The researchers emphasize the importance of continued study, noting that while current data suggests benefits in terms of water regulation, long-term impacts on ecosystems and regional geopolitics require close monitoring.
Their findings provide a foundation for balancing hydropower development with environmental sustainability in one of Asia’s most sensitive transboundary river systems.
