By Abbas Nazil
A new study has revealed that climate change could significantly threaten cassava production across Africa, despite the crop’s resilience and importance to food security for millions of people.
Cassava, a staple crop supporting over 800 million people globally, is widely cultivated across sub-Saharan Africa, which accounts for more than 63 percent of global production, with Nigeria alone contributing over 20 percent.
Researchers found that while warming temperatures may expand the areas suitable for cassava cultivation, they will also accelerate the spread of cassava brown streak disease, posing a serious risk to food systems across the continent.
The study, led by Geofrey Wingi Sikazwe, used computer modelling and climate data to predict future patterns of cassava growth and disease spread up to the year 2080.
Findings show that about 54.6 percent of Africa’s land area is currently suitable for cassava farming, and this could increase to nearly two-thirds of the continent as temperatures rise.
However, the disease already threatens 33.7 percent of cassava production, and projections indicate that up to 56 percent of Africa could become vulnerable to its spread by 2050.
The spread of the disease is closely linked to the expansion of whiteflies, insects that transmit the virus and thrive in warmer conditions, making climate change a key driver of the growing threat.
Regions in East Africa, including Tanzania and Uganda, have already been identified as hotspots, while the disease is expected to spread westward into major cassava-producing countries such as Nigeria, Ghana, and Cameroon.
Although cassava can tolerate poor soils and low rainfall, making it a vital crop under changing climate conditions, the same environmental changes that support its growth also create favourable conditions for pests and diseases.
The study highlights that farming practices, particularly the reuse of infected planting materials, further contribute to the spread of the disease across regions.
Researchers recommend the urgent adoption of disease-resistant and heat-tolerant cassava varieties to safeguard production and maintain food security.
They also call for stricter national and international controls on the movement of cassava planting materials to prevent cross-border transmission of the disease.
Additionally, areas less suitable for disease spread, such as parts of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Sahel region, could be prioritised for cultivating improved cassava varieties.
The findings underscore the need for coordinated action, combining scientific innovation, policy measures, and sustainable agricultural practices to address the dual challenge of climate change and crop disease.
Experts conclude that while cassava has historically been a reliable buffer against food insecurity, its future in Africa will depend on proactive measures to manage emerging climate-related risks.
