By Faridat Salifu
Escalating input costs driven by energy market disruptions are beginning to influence farmers’ planting decisions worldwide, raising concerns about future food production despite currently stable global supply levels, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has warned.
While the FAO Food Price Index rose moderately to 128.5 points in March, up 2.4 percent from February, the more significant risk lies ahead as producers respond to sustained increases in fertilizer and fuel prices.
The price pressure is linked to ongoing tensions in the Near East and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global route for oil shipments, which has pushed up energy costs and, by extension, agricultural inputs.
FAO Chief Economist Máximo Torero said farmers are increasingly facing difficult choices that could shape production outcomes beyond the current season.
He warned that prolonged high costs could force farmers to either reduce fertilizer use, scale back planted areas or switch to less input-intensive crops, decisions that may lower yields and tighten food supply in the coming months.
This shift is already influencing global crop outlooks, with wheat prices rising due to deteriorating conditions in the United States of America and anticipated lower plantings in Australia as fertilizer becomes more expensive.
At the same time, higher energy prices are boosting demand for biofuels, contributing to increases in vegetable oil and sugar prices, particularly in major producers such as Brazil.
Despite these pressures, global cereal supplies remain relatively strong, with FAO projecting total production in 2025 at 3.036 billion tonnes and global stocks expected to expand significantly.
However, analysts caution that strong supply figures may mask emerging risks, as current production forecasts are based on planting decisions made before the latest surge in input costs.
The Agricultural Market Information System said rising energy, fertilizer and transportation costs are already creating ripple effects across the agricultural sector, even without immediate supply disruptions.
FAO said the evolving situation highlights a growing disconnect between short-term supply stability and longer-term production risks, as farmers adjust to a more volatile and costly operating environment.
The organization warned that if current conditions persist, the real impact of the crisis may only become visible in future harvest cycles, when reduced input use and shifting crop choices begin to affect yields and global food availability.
