By Abbas Nazil
A new study has shown that developing countries can achieve net-zero emissions while maintaining rising income levels, offering hope that economic growth does not have to come at the expense of the environment.
The research, led by Hideo Noda of the Tokyo University of Science with coauthor Fengqi Fang, provides a framework for when countries can clean up emissions and still grow.
It connects directly to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 8.4, which calls for decoupling economic growth from environmental harm by 2030.
The study introduces the “kindergarten rule,” a principle that requires nations to clean up what they pollute by matching abatement to emissions at all times.
The authors tested their model using real-world parameters, ensuring it was more than a theoretical concept.
They examined two versions of the economy: one where public services like roads and schools boost private productivity, and another where congestion reduces benefits as more people share limited resources.
The findings reveal that once GDP per capita rises above a certain threshold, full abatement becomes possible.
Foreign aid plays a key role for many low-income nations, helping fund both pollution control and public services.
Improved technology also lowers the income threshold since cleaner tools make abatement more effective.
Tax policy is central to success, with the right labor income tax rate financing public services that, in turn, support private sector growth.
The study concludes that zero-emissions targets are compatible with sustainable economic expansion if governments invest wisely, scale services to match population growth, and use aid strategically.
Published in The Singapore Economic Review, the work fills a critical gap by showing that aid-dependent and resource-limited nations can also reach net-zero without stalling development.
This gives policymakers a measurable target and practical path to achieving both climate and economic goals simultaneously.
