By Faridat Salifu
Cocoa prices have surged in recent weeks as extreme weather conditions in West Africa raise fears of tightening supplies.
On the New York Exchange, the cash crop rebounded from a 52-week low to settle at $7,420 per ton.
The price remains well below the record $12,646 per ton reached in December 2024, but traders say renewed weather threats are pushing markets upward.
Excessive rainfall in Ivory Coast has hampered farm work and slowed cocoa shipments from plantations to ports.
Meanwhile, Ghana and Nigeria are struggling with prolonged dry spells that have caused pods to wither and reduced crop quality.
The Commodity Weather Group reported that the past 60 days have been the driest since 1979 in major cocoa regions.
Before the main harvest season in October, analysts warn the lack of rain may affect pod retention and cut yields further.
Farmers are also battling black pod disease in Ghana and Nigeria, a fungal infection worsened by cold, damp conditions.
Rabobank has linked the lower quality of Ivory Coast’s mid-crop to late rains that disrupted growth earlier in the year.
That mid-crop, usually harvested from April to September, is smaller than the main harvest but important for supply chains.
Tighter inventories are also driving up prices.
ICE-monitored cocoa stocks in U.S. ports fell to a four-month low of 2,115,411 bags last week.
The slowdown in Ivory Coast exports is adding more pressure to markets already concerned about availability.
But rising prices have triggered fears of weaker demand from chocolate manufacturers.
Swiss chocolatier Lindt & Sprüngli cut its profit margin forecast in July after first-half sales fell.
Barry Callebaut, the world’s largest cocoa processor, lowered its sales volume outlook twice in three months, citing consistently high cocoa prices.
For Nigeria, the world’s fifth-largest cocoa producer, production is projected to fall 11 percent to 305,000 metric tons in 2025–2026.
Despite the decline, Nigeria’s June cocoa exports rose 0.9 percent year on year to 14,597 metric tons.
The country also recorded N1.23 trillion in cocoa export earnings in the first quarter of 2025, up 220 percent from the same period in 2024.
Nigeria has also become a leading importer of Cameroonian beans, buying 2,100 metric tons in the last season, according to Cameroon’s cocoa board.
Officials in Abuja say imports will be better regulated, reducing illegal cross-border flows that have plagued the sector.
Vice President Kashim Shettima said Nigeria is committed to reviving its cocoa industry, noting that a National Cocoa Management Board has been approved.
He told the World Cocoa Foundation that the government’s plan is to shift from raw bean exports to value-added processing.
Shettima said the renewed focus is part of efforts to restore Nigeria’s status as a global cocoa leader.
The International Cocoa Organization forecasts a global surplus of 142,000 metric tons for 2024–2025, the first in four years.
Global output is expected to rise 7.8 percent to 4.84 million metric tons this season, according to ICCO.
Even with surplus projections, traders say supply risks in West Africa are likely to keep prices volatile in the months ahead.
