By Faridat Salifu
The UK’s recent spell of unusually dry and sunny weather has been driven by persistent blocked weather patterns, scientists say, a phenomenon that illustrates both the short-term benefits and long-term risks of a rapidly changing climate.
High pressure systems locked in place by a meandering jet stream brought weeks of settled weather, especially to Scotland, where only 41 percent of the usual spring rainfall had been recorded with just a week left in the season.
A This shift, while welcome for some sectors like tourism and hospitality, highlights the growing unpredictability of weather extremes in a warming world.
According to climate scientists, rising global temperatures are intensifying the water cycle, enabling the atmosphere to hold more moisture.
This means that while dry spells may persist longer, rain events when they do occur tend to be heavier and more likely to cause flooding.
Blocked weather patterns are not new. But their interaction with climate change is raising questions.
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“There is no clear trend with climate change as far as we can tell in the observations so far,” said Dr. Matt Patterson of the University of St Andrews, speaking to BBC Radio Scotland. “That’s because there is a lot of variability from year to year that contributes to our weather.”
One theory suggests that a warming Arctic is causing the jet stream to become more erratic or “wavy,” increasing the likelihood of prolonged high pressure systems.
However, current climate models offer limited support for a sustained increase in these blocking events.
Meanwhile, businesses like the Cheesy Toast Shack on St Andrews’ East Sands are seeing the upside of the dry spring. “We’ve just been incredibly busy – midweek, weekends it’s just busy all the time,” said owner Kate Carter-Larg, who reported a 30 percent increase in trade compared to May last year. “It’s a huge factor that the weather has been so dry.”
Still, scientists warn that such favorable conditions may not last — or may come at a cost. With spring now the fastest-warming season across all four UK nations, temperature extremes and rainfall variability are likely to increase.
What’s perceived as a sunny boost one year could quickly become a stressor on water supplies, agriculture, and infrastructure the next.
As the pendulum of weather continues to swing, experts agree on one certainty: the UK’s climate future will be more extreme, and more unpredictable.
