By Abdullahi Lukman
U.S. President Donald Trump has imposed a 5 percent tariff on imports from Mexico, citing the country’s failure to uphold the 1944 Water Treaty, which governs cross-border water distribution.
Trump announced the tariff hike on his social media platform Truth Social on Monday, accusing Mexico of failing to deliver the required water to the U.S., which has significantly impacted agricultural production in Texas.
Trump’s message demanded that Mexico release 200,000 acre-feet (246 million cubic meters) of water to the U.S. by December 31, 2025, or face the new tariffs, which will take effect immediately.
“Mexico still owes the U.S. over 800,000 acre-feet of water,” Trump wrote, adding that the water deficit was harming Texas crops and livestock.
He further warned that the longer Mexico delayed, the more harm would be done to U.S. farmers.
The dispute centers around the 1944 Water Treaty, which allocates water from the Rio Grande and Colorado River between the two countries.
Under the treaty, Mexico is required to release 350,000 acre-feet of water to the U.S. each year, while the U.S. provides 1.5 million acre-feet to Mexico. However, years of severe drought in Mexico have made it difficult for the country to meet these obligations.
Agricultural stakeholders in Texas, particularly in the Rio Grande Valley, have grown increasingly frustrated, arguing that Mexico’s failure to provide sufficient water has hurt their crops.
Texas Governor Greg Abbott has pledged to support the farmers, stating, “Mexico must be held accountable for their continued breaches of our long-standing water agreement.”
Abbott added that the state’s agricultural viability was being threatened by the lack of water.
In response, Mexico has denied violating the treaty, stating that it has fulfilled its obligations to the extent that available water resources allow.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum pointed to severe drought conditions and insisted that the country had provided as much water as possible.
Tensions over the treaty have been a long-standing issue. In 2020, Mexican farmers took drastic measures, such as occupying dams, to prevent water from flowing northward as they struggled with their own water shortages.
Since then, Mexico’s deficit under the treaty has continued to grow, fueling claims of a “water debt” owed to the U.S.
This recent escalation is not the first time Trump has used tariffs as leverage to enforce compliance with the treaty.
In April 2025, he made a similar threat and in March 2025, the U.S. State Department blocked a request from Mexico to receive special deliveries of Colorado River water for the drought-stricken city of Tijuana.
While the two countries reached a temporary agreement in April 2025 to ease the water dispute, with Mexico agreeing to release water from reservoirs and increase water flow from the Rio Grande, U.S. officials and lawmakers in Texas argue that the agreement was insufficient.
With Mexico’s water deliveries falling short, Texas lawmakers are calling for the deficit to be carried over into the next treaty cycle.
The situation has also sparked domestic pressure within Mexico, where farmers have protested against water restrictions and a new bill aimed at tightening water regulations.
As the dispute continues, Trump has made it clear that he is dissatisfied with Mexico’s handling of the water issue, leaving the door open for further tariff increases and economic measures. “I am not happy with Mexico,” he stated last month.
