Recent Study has Revealed that Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will continue to Intensify Tensions between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt.
The recent study conducted by researchers from IHE Delft, Utrecht University, and Wageningen University & Research has shown that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project on the Nile River, since its inception in February 2022, has reinforced tensions between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt.
The three countries heavily rely on the Nile’s water. While Sudan and Egypt perceive the US$4.6 billion dam as a threat to their vital water supplies, Ethiopia considers it essential for its development.
This study examines conflict risks in global transboundary river basins and highlights how conflicts can arise between states sharing such basins. With the increasing global temperatures, there is a real risk that such conflicts will become more common.
Numerous rivers are shared between two or more countries, and the way water resources are managed can either foster cooperation or lead to conflict. This depends on economic, cultural, and institutional conditions, as well as historical relations between countries.
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Although cooperation has historically prevailed over conflict and large-scale violent international conflicts have not occurred so far, tensions over water have long existed and are rising in several river basins.
Africa alone has 66 transboundary river basins, including the Nile basin, the Juba-Shabelle basin, and the Lake Turkana basin in the Horn of Africa. As populations grow, water usage intensifies, and the climate changes, the risk of conflict in these basins can increase.
While there is no consensus on the precise mechanisms that fuel conflict in transboundary river basins, it is possible to identify basins where risks are projected to compound by combining data from existing literature on conflict risk conditions.
According to the study, if no substantial changes are made in the management of transboundary river basins and with worsening climate change, it is projected that by 2050, 920 million people will reside in basins with very high to high conflict risks.
However, if nations improve water usage, strengthen cooperation, and take measures to prevent or mitigate conflicts, this number can be reduced to 536 million.
The study emphasizes that water treaties and robust river basin organizations enhance the likelihood of long-term, stable cooperation between states.
