A relentless stretch of severe weather that left 28 dead and unleashed destruction across the central and eastern United States in recent days isn’t letting up yet, with millions more in the path of dangerous weather this week.
Monday’s level 4-of-5 risk of severe thunderstorms in the Plains marks the third day out of the last four to hit this rare level – one typically issued on about 10 days each year. All severe thunderstorm hazards are expected– including tornadoes that could reach EF3 strength or greater.
Oklahoma City and Tulsa, Oklahoma, are within the most concerning risk area Monday, but Dallas, Kansas City and St. Louis, including areas devastated on Friday, could also be in the path of dangerous storms.
More than 12 million people from North Texas to Nebraska were under tornado watches by mid-afternoon.
Here’s the latest:
Deadly weather: Violent storms have killed at least 28 people in three states since Friday: 19 in Kentucky, seven in Missouri – including five in St. Louis – and two in Virginia. There have been at least 1,500 reports to the SPC of damaging wind gusts, hail and tornadoes in the days of storms since Wednesday.
Rare tornado emergencies: The National Weather Service issued the most extreme tornado warning it has at its disposal on Friday and issued two more on Sunday night. Friday’s covered southern Illinois’ Williamson County, where an EF4 tornado roared through and injured at least seven people. Greensburg and Plevna, Kansas, were caught in Sunday night’s tornado emergencies as “large and destructive” tornadoes tracked through or close to each area.
More danger to come: Tens of millions of people in the central US are at risk of severe thunderstorms on Monday, including more than 16 million people from Texas to Kansas and Missouri who could be in the path of strong tornadoes – defined as EF2 or stronger. More than 7 million people are under that same tornado risk on Tuesday as severe weather shifts east.
Storms developing: Severe thunderstorms were rumbling from northern Texas to eastern Kansas Monday afternoon. These storms pose a risk of damaging winds, hail and tornadoes, but another round of storms that will develop later this afternoon that carries a greater tornado threat.
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Significant tornado risk forecast once again
Multiple rounds of severe weather will target the Plains on Monday, bringing the threat of damaging wind gusts stronger than 80 mph, hail bigger than softballs and strong or intense – greater than EF3 –tornadoes.
“Everyone needs to stay weather aware today/tonight and have a plan in place in case you need to shelter,” the National Weather Service in Norman, Oklahoma, urged.
A level 4-of-5 risk of severe thunderstorms is centered on more than 5 million people in the eastern half of Oklahoma – including Oklahoma City – and portions of surrounding states on Monday, according to the SPC. A larger level 3-of-5 risk includes more than 12 million people elsewhere in the Plains and Mississippi Valley.
The first round of storms began early Monday afternoon and stretched from northern Texas to Kansas a few hours later. The most dangerous activity in Kansas and Oklahoma is expected to begin later Monday afternoon and push east into the Mississippi Valley overnight.
The greatest risk of tornadoes will start when storms first fire up in the late afternoon and continue through the evening, with the SPC warning of long-lived supercells – rotating thunderstorms capable of producing violent impacts – that could travel large distances. Oklahoma is at the greatest threat for these storms, but they’re also possible in surrounding states.
A dangerous flash flooding threat will also build just east of where the strongest thunderstorms are set to strike.
A level 3-of-4 risk of flooding rainfall is in place for parts of northern Arkansas and southern Missouri, according to the Weather Prediction Center. These areas have been soaked in recent weeks, so any additional heavy rain could produce “numerous flash floods.”
The severe weather threat will shift east on Tuesday, targeting parts of the Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee valleys — including areas that have already been hit hard by this spring’s storms, like western Kentucky and western Tennessee.
Damaging wind gusts, hail and tornadoes are once again possible within any storm on Tuesday. Some areas, especially parts of the Ohio Valley, could start the day with lingering severe storms from Monday night.
