By Abdullahi Lukman
A new analysis of two decades of satellite data shows that large parts of Europe are losing freshwater at an accelerating rate, with southern and central regions—from Spain and Italy to Poland and parts of the UK—experiencing sustained drying.
Researchers at University College London, working with Watershed Investigations and the Guardian, examined 2002–2024 satellite measurements that detect changes in Earth’s gravitational field to estimate total water storage.
The results show a growing divide: while northern and north-western Europe, including Scandinavia and parts of the UK and Portugal, are getting wetter, the south and southeast are drying significantly.
Scientists say the trends closely match climate-change data. UCL professor Mohammad Shamsudduha warned the findings should be a wake-up call for policymakers, noting that Europe is already seeing the consequences of global temperatures heading toward 2°C above preindustrial levels.
Groundwater analysis confirmed that even deep, typically resilient water reserves are shrinking.
In the UK, western regions are getting wetter while the east is drying, with heavier downpours, longer dry spells and reduced groundwater recharge. South-east England, which relies on groundwater for 70% of its public supply, may face growing water security risks.
Across the EU, groundwater withdrawals rose 6% between 2000 and 2022, driven by public supply and agriculture, despite overall reductions in water abstraction. Groundwater now provides 62% of public water and one-third of agricultural supply.
The European Commission says its water-resilience strategy aims to build a “water-smart economy” and improve efficiency by at least 10% by 2030, partly through fixing widespread leakage.
Experts warn of worsening droughts, water restrictions and ecosystem impacts if rainfall remains insufficient. The UK’s Environment Agency has cautioned that drought may persist into 2026.
Hydrology specialists say long-term resilience will require quicker action on water reuse, nature-based solutions and infrastructure changes—not just new reservoirs, which take decades to develop.
Scientists warn that Europe’s drying will affect farming, food security and groundwater-dependent habitats, with ripple effects beyond the continent. Shrinking reserves in countries like Spain could affect food supply chains to the UK.
Globally, similar drying hotspots are intensifying across the Middle East, Asia, the Americas and parts of the Arctic. In Iran, Tehran is nearing “day zero,” with authorities preparing for water rationing and potential evacuation if supplies fail.
