By Abbas Nazil
The global health impacts linked to plastics systems could double by 2040 unless urgent action is taken, according to new international research.
The study warns that emissions across the full life cycle of plastics pose growing threats to human health worldwide.
Researchers found that health harms occur at every stage of plastics production and use, from fossil fuel extraction to disposal in the environment.
More than 90 percent of plastics are produced from fossil fuel feedstocks, making the sector closely tied to pollution and climate change.
The research was led by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine in collaboration with the University of Toulouse and the University of Exeter.
Using advanced modelling, scientists compared multiple future scenarios for plastics production, consumption and waste management between 2016 and 2040.
Under a business-as-usual scenario, the model shows that negative health impacts from plastics could double by 2040.
Greenhouse gas emissions and rising global temperatures would account for about 40 percent of the projected health harms.
Air pollution, largely generated during plastics manufacturing processes, would contribute 32 percent of the impacts.
Toxic chemicals released across the plastics life cycle would account for 27 percent of the health burden.
Less than one percent of impacts would stem from water scarcity, ozone depletion and increased ionising radiation.
The findings were published in the journal The Lancet Planetary Health.
The study is the first to estimate global disability-adjusted life years lost due to plastics-related emissions.
DALYs measure the number of healthy years of life lost because of disease, disability or premature death.
Researchers linked plastics emissions to respiratory illnesses, cancers, climate-related diseases and other serious health conditions.
The model estimates that annual health impacts could rise from 2.1 million DALYs in 2016 to 4.5 million DALYs by 2040.
Overall, plastics systems could remove an estimated 83 million years of healthy life globally between 2016 and 2040.
The researchers tested alternative scenarios aimed at reducing plastic-related harm.
They found that improving waste collection or recycling alone produced limited health benefits.
The most effective outcome occurred only when all measures were combined into a full system transformation.
Such an approach could reduce plastics-related health impacts by 43 percent by 2040 compared to current trends.
Primary plastics production was identified as the leading source of health damage in every scenario.
Reducing overall plastic production, without replacing it with other harmful materials, delivered the greatest health benefits.
Transitioning to renewable energy reduced some climate and air pollution effects but failed to address chemical pollution.
Study author Megan Deeney said plastics harm health far beyond consumer use or recycling behaviour.
She noted that responsibility cannot rest solely on individuals.
According to her, systemic change across the entire plastics life cycle is urgently needed.
Researchers also highlighted major gaps in data due to limited industry transparency.
They said the lack of disclosure on chemical composition restricts effective policy development.
Professor Xiaoyu Yan of the University of Exeter said large-scale modelling reveals the true scale of plastics’ health impacts.
The authors concluded that the current trajectory is unsustainable.
They called for global action to significantly reduce plastic production and eliminate hazardous chemicals.
Without immediate intervention, they warned, plastics will become an escalating global public health crisis.
