By Ojugbele Omotunde
Scientists at UC Berkeley and UC Santa Barbara, last week unveiled a new AI-powered online tool that offers unprecedented insight into how the world’s nations can combine policies to end plastic pollution in the United Nations global plastics treaty, which is currently under negotiation.
This is coming as both plastic production and waste are expected to reach unmanageable levels by 2050.
More than 175 countries had decided to draft a legally binding worldwide agreement to stop plastic pollution in March 2022. From Palau to the United Arab Emirates, sixty of these countries pledged to accomplish this by 2040.
According to research, if nothing is done, there would be a 22% increase in annual plastic output and a 62% increase in plastic pollution between 2024 and 2050. If not checked, there would be enough plastics produced worldwide between 2010 and 2050 to cover Manhattan’s whole island in a 3.5-kilometer-tall pile of plastic waste, which is almost ten times the height of the Empire State Building.
However, plastic pollution could be practically eliminated in 2040 with a robust UN plastics treaty that includes the correct combination of nine policies to reduce plastic usage.
“Global population density in developing countries is significantly higher than in the EU and NAFTA combined.
“We will be in much more difficulty if they start using plastics at the rates that the EU and NAFTA are. Nevertheless, there is a way out of this predicament. By implementing all of the suggested policies, we can almost completely eliminate mismanaged trash. I hope that world leaders in the EU and NAFTA will commit to a high-aim deal to assist other nations in overcoming this obstacle,” said Dr. Nivedita Biyani, who studies global plastic modeling at the University of California, Santa Barbara’s Benioff Ocean Science Laboratory.
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Already, a team of plastic researchers, data scientists, and artificial intelligence researchers at the University of California Santa Barbara’s Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, the University of California Berkeley’s Eric and Wendy Schmidt Centre for Data Science & Environment, and the Benioff Ocean Science Laboratory have developed a new tool and underlying analysis that uses machine learning to combine data on population growth and economic trends to forecast future plastic production, pollution, and trade.
As representatives prepare to travel to Nairobi, Kenya, for the initial round of talks on a plastics convention, this interactive model illustrates a number of policy insights that can help shape the UN treaty.
Dr. Douglas McCauley, an adjunct professor at UC Berkeley and professor at UC Santa Barbara, stated that “finally solving the plastics crisis means a win for the environment, a win in our fight against climate change, and a healthier and more just future for all people.”
“It would be worse to have a weak pact than none at all. However, I was ecstatic to discover scientific evidence that a robust pact might essentially put a stop to the plastic trash issue forever. Knowing that my generation may be the last to experience the disease of plastic pollution brings me the greatest joy. I can only hope that these findings are taken into consideration by the nations gathering in Nairobi next week.
“I admit that I thought it would be impossible to end plastic pollution by 2040 when I first saw these nations making this commitment,” Dr. McCauley remarked. “However, I was astounded to find a route to almost zero in this study.”
According to the research, if five distinct strategies were adopted simultaneously, the largest amount of plastic pollution would be eliminated. They are: 1) a pledge to use a minimum amount of recycled content; 2) a limit on the amount of virgin plastic produced; 3) an investment in infrastructure for managing plastic trash; 4) comparable investments in additional recycling capacity; and 5) a minor charge on plastic packaging (e.g., products like plastic bags).
By itself, establishing a minimum recycling content rate that would mandate that at least 30% of a given plastic be made of recycled materials, it will reduce the amount of waste that is mismanaged annually by roughly 31% by the year 2040.
Comparable to mainstream climate plans, limiting the manufacture of plastic to 2025 might, on its own, cut the amount of waste that is mismanaged annually by about 15% in 2040 and 26% in 2050.
