By Abbas Nazil
Nigeria and South Africa are planning significant increases in fossil fuel production, raising concerns over their ability to meet climate change commitments.
Only 20 countries produce 80 percent of the world’s oil, gas, and coal, and recent reports highlight that many of these nations intend to continue or expand extraction, despite global targets under the Paris Agreement to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Nigeria aims to nearly double oil output to three million barrels per day by 2030 and increase gas production by 75 percent from 2024 levels.
These targets conflict with the country’s climate pledges, including a 29 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, 32 percent by 2035, and carbon neutrality by 2060.
South Africa plans to increase domestic gas production from offshore fields and import liquefied natural gas, while the state-owned South African National Petroleum Company is expected to expand fossil fuel operations.
The country has also extended the life of aging coal-fired power plants, despite a climate law aiming to reduce emissions and close such facilities, signaling continued dependence on coal for at least another decade.
Both countries rely heavily on fossil fuels for revenue and energy security, creating a gap between climate promises and actual investments.
Continuing fossil fuel expansion risks stranded assets, price shocks, and environmental harm.
In Nigeria, oil spills, gas flaring, and pipeline sabotage have already caused ecological damage in the Niger Delta, threatening agriculture, fisheries, and public health.
South Africa faces economic risks from potential carbon border adjustment mechanisms that would increase costs of emissions-intensive exports, undermining competitiveness.
Experts stress that transitioning to renewable energy c ould improve energy security, reduce costs, and avoid stranded infrastructure, while over-investment in fossil fuels locks both nations into uncertain futures.
To align with climate goals, Nigeria and South Africa must plan to reduce fossil fuel production, limit new investments, and develop clear strategies for a just transition that supports workers and communities dependent on the industry.
Without decisive action, continued reliance on oil, gas, and coal could compromise global climate targets, damage ecosystems, and create economic and social vulnerabilities across both countries.
