Two researchers have reviewed data around global warming, and concluded that the battle to limit global warming to 1.5°C by 2050 is doomed.
To achieve the goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C, global carbon emissions reach ‘net zero’ (where emissions are balanced by carbon absorbed by plants and carbon-capture technology) by 2050.
The researchers say in a paper published in Science that to meet the goal, emissions will have to fall 43% by 2030 – but emissions are still rising.
A rise of 1.5°C is considered important, because above that level, there will be more heatwaves, extreme weather events, droughts and greater economic losses.
Previous research has suggested that these emissions have already led to an increase of 1.25°C.
The two researchers, H. Damon Matthews and Seth Wynes looked at research describing the current state of the global climate system.
The researchers also looked at past trends that have led to the warming increases already observed, and at efforts made by other scientists to use such data to predict warming in the future based on different levels of greenhouse gas emissions.
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The researchers also analysed efforts around the globe aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions and used them to make estimates regarding their impact on slowing global warming.
In the end, the pair found that given current circumstances, there is almost zero chance that the 1.5°C goal will be met.
They suggest the primary barriers to success are the lack of a proper global technological system and the political will to effect change – and conclude that the world is simply not seriously committed to reaching the 1.5 degrees Celsius goal.
The researchers write, “Though the growth rate of global carbon dioxide emissions has slowed and many countries have strengthened their emissions targets, current midcentury net zero goals are insufficient to limit global warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial temperatures.
“The primary barriers to the achievement of a 1.5°C-compatible pathway are not geophysical but rather reflect inertia in our political and technological systems. Both political and corporate leadership are needed to overcome this inertia, supported by increased societal recognition of the need for system-level and individual lifestyle changes.”
If countries continue on their current path, the world will see sea levels rising by more than two feet by 2100, according to the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
The impacts of climate change are already being felt around the world, with the UN attributing extreme weather events to human-induced climate change.
NASA says, ‘More than one-fifth of all humans live in regions that have already seen warming greater than 1.5 degrees Celsius in at least one season.
