By Ojugbele Omotunde
A recent study conducted by World Weather Attribution has found that the October heatwave in Madagascar was primarily a result of human-induced climate change.
Despite being the hottest October on record for the country, the heatwave received limited international coverage, underscoring a lack of awareness about the risks of extreme heat in Africa and potential challenges in accessing climate finance.
As climate change continues to intensify, heatwaves are not only becoming more frequent but also hotter.
In Madagascar, this year’s October temperatures were more than 2.5°C above the average, a level of heat typically expected in December or January.
Using peer-reviewed techniques and model simulations, scientists analyzed weather data to determine the influence of climate change on the Madagascar heatwave.
The study focused on three key variables: average October temperatures over Madagascar, seven-day maximum and minimum temperatures in Antananarivo, and the seven-day average temperature in Antananarivo, particularly important for understanding nighttime heat exposure, which can pose risks to human health.
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Scientists found that the October heatwave and the seven-day minimum temperatures in Antananarivo were nearly inconceivable in a world without the warming effects of fossil fuel burning, being at least 100 times more likely due to climate change.
Additionally, climate change increased the likelihood of the seven-day maximum temperatures by at least ten times.
The study highlighted that global warming from fossil fuel burning has made the heat 1-2°C hotter than it would have been otherwise.
In Madagascar, hot Octobers are rare events, occurring once every 100 years, while in Antananarivo, they happen every 20-25 years.
The researchers predict that without swift phase-out of fossil fuels, similar October heatwaves in Madagascar and Antananarivo will become more frequent, occurring approximately twice a decade and being 0.8°C hotter than current conditions if global warming reaches 2°C.
Despite the dangerously high temperatures experienced in Madagascar, the study noted a lack of reported effects linked to the heat.
This underscores a broader issue in many African nations, where extreme heat is often underreported and understudied, making it challenging for governments to address and draw attention to the ongoing impacts of climate change.
