By Abdullahi Lukman
A new global climate assessment by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), the U.S., warns that the world is likely to breach critical temperature thresholds this century unless governments take stronger and faster action to cut emissions.
The “2025 Global Change Outlook,” released by MIT, projects that under existing policies global temperatures could approach 3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100, despite rapid growth in renewable energy.
The report comes after another round of international climate talks ended without binding commitments to phase out fossil fuels.
Using MIT’s Integrated Global Systems Model, which links population growth, economic activity, energy use and policy choices to climate outcomes, the outlook finds that current efforts fall far short of the Paris Agreement targets.
“We are nowhere near the stated goals of the Paris Agreement,” said Sergey Paltsev, a co-author of the report and deputy director at MIT’s Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy.
The model shows renewable energy expanding quickly, with wind and solar projected to supply more than 70 percent of global electricity by 2050, up from about 40 percent today.
Global coal use is also expected to continue declining. However, these gains are largely offset by rising energy demand from economic and population growth, particularly in developing countries.
Global greenhouse gas emissions are projected to increase until around 2030, driven mainly by continued use of oil and natural gas. Emissions then decline slowly through mid-century before rising again later due in part to agricultural emissions linked to population growth.
As a result, the model estimates global temperatures will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius within the next few years, reach about 1.8 degrees by 2050 and near 3 degrees by the end of the century.
Other independent analyses, including those by Rhodium Group and Climate Action Tracker, project similar “middle-of-the-road” warming scenarios.
Exceeding 1.5 degrees increases the risk of triggering climate tipping points and intensifying extreme weather.
Recent data from the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service shows that the past three years averaged more than 1.5 degrees of warming, underscoring how close the world already is to that threshold.
The outlook warns that higher temperatures will worsen heat waves, disrupt rainfall patterns, increase drought risk, threaten food production and accelerate biodiversity loss.
Heat-related deaths already exceed half a million annually worldwide.
Despite the grim projections, the report says rapid and coordinated action could still limit long-term damage.
Accelerated policies—such as tripling renewable energy, doubling energy efficiency and sharply cutting methane emissions—could slow warming significantly and reduce projected end-of-century temperatures.
Still, even under the most ambitious scenarios, the model suggests the world is likely to temporarily overshoot the 1.5-degree target.
“The question then becomes for how long and how strong,” said Adam Schlosser, another co-author of the report.
Researchers stress that every fraction of a degree matters.
“Limiting every degree possible matters, even every tenth of a degree,” Paltsev said, noting that small differences can determine how severe climate impacts become for people and ecosystems worldwide.
