By Abbas Nazil
A new report by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) warns that there is no simple solution to balancing food security, economic growth, and environmental sustainability in the European Union’s future agricultural policy.
The study, known as Scenar 2040, explores different “what-if” scenarios to guide the future of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). It provides a baseline scenario alongside three alternatives — productivity and investment, environment and climate, and a hypothetical “NoCAP” situation — to highlight how various policy directions could reshape the EU’s agricultural sector by 2040.
In the Productivity and Investment scenario, agricultural output is projected to rise by 2.7%, with lower food prices and stronger trade performance, improving the EU trade balance by €2.7 billion. However, this growth comes with a 0.5% increase in greenhouse gas emissions and a 1.4% rise in nitrogen surplus, posing environmental challenges.
Conversely, the Environment and Climate scenario prioritizes sustainability, cutting emissions by 1.7% and nitrogen pollution by 2% per hectare, while creating around 90,000 new jobs. Yet, this approach would lead to a 4% decline in output, higher food prices, and an €1.8 billion deterioration in the EU trade balance.
The report also models a “NoCAP” scenario, which would reduce farm incomes by 11%, shrink food production by 5%, and lead to 250,000 job losses in the agri-food sector.
The JRC emphasizes that while productivity-driven policies boost efficiency, they risk environmental harm, whereas green-focused policies reduce pollution but can weaken food production and competitiveness.
Ultimately, the study concludes that the EU’s agricultural future requires a balanced, evidence-based policy approach capable of managing competing priorities at both local and global levels.
